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ReliefWeb - Updates

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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria

    (Yaounde, 4 January 2017): The Government of Cameroon with the United Nations and non-governmental partner organizations launched on 3 January in Yaounde a US$ 310 million response plan to provide life-saving assistance to 1.2 million people in Cameroon’s northern and eastern regions. "Cameroon continues to confront a complex crisis deeply affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people,” said UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Ms. Najat Rochdi. “The Government and people of Cameroon are showing great hospitality to hundreds of thousands of Nigerian and Central African refugees. We call for the renewed engagement of the humanitarian partners and international donors to match this generosity and assist the people most in need."

    In 2017, almost three million people in Cameroon are expected to be in need of assistance. Around 2.6 million will face crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity, mostly in the arid Sahel belt of the northern regions.

    Malnutrition remains equally high, affecting some 200,000 children. Cameroon also hosts some 360,000 refugees from neighbouring Central African Republic and Nigeria, and the number of internally displaced people has more than doubled in 2016 to almost 200,000 people. “The crisis is most acute in the Far North region where violence and insecurity have a terrible impact on civilians,” said Ms Rochdi.

    “Thousands of families had to flee their homes finding refuge in villages that also are on the brink of crisis. Across the region, commercial activities have taken a major hit, famers were unable to attend to their fields. The resulting emergency continues to cause unacceptable human suffering, with children and women being the most vulnerable. These communities are in dire need of immediate, life-saving aid.” The Far North is also hosting 86,000 refugees from Nigeria, the majority of them staying in the Minawao camp.

    Cameroon’s eastern region continues to host 275,000 refugees from the Central African Republic. “As humanitarians, we will do our part and deliver life-saving aid to the children, women and men in need,” said Ms Rochdi. “But deep-rooted vulnerability in the region, caused by poverty, insecurity and the impact of climate change, can only be addressed in a joint effort. And together with all partners, we will work towards shifting from providing aid to ending needs.” The 2017 response plan requires US$310 million to target 1.2 million people with assistance. While covering the immediate needs of the most vulnerable, the response plan also emphasises complementary action and cooperation with government and development partners.

    “The Government of Cameroon is grateful to all partners who in a spirit of action and close cooperation, are supporting the people of Cameroon, sometimes by risking their lives,” said René Sadi, Minister of Territorial Administration and Decentralization. “We would like to move increasingly from emergency assistance to development support. I therefore invite all partners to reinforce the host communities’ resilience making them less vulnerable to crisis situations”.

    Over the last three years, humanitarian needs and financial requirement in Cameroon have steadily increased leading to a significant scale up of response capacity and number of partners. Budget constraints however caused significant gaps across all sectors. In 2016, only 64 per cent of the required US$ 232 million were funded.

    For further information please contact: Max Schott, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),+ 237 690 11 58 72, schott@un.org Bibiane Mouangue, Office of the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator,+ 237 671 05 06 60 bibiane.mouangue@one.un.org OCHA press releases are available on www.unocha.org/rowca and www.reliefweb.int


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Cameroon

    SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT CASH ACTIVITY

    Cash Transfer Program (CTP) interventions have been implemented in Cameroon since 2004.
    There has been a slight increase since 2013 when the Framework of Social Safety Net Programme implemented by the Government with the technical and financial support of the World Bank Group was launched. The cash transfer component provides small, regular transfers over a 24-month period to very poor households. These transfers, in combination with accompanying measures and soft conditionalities, help households stabilize their consumption, make the necessary investments in the human capital of their families, especially children, and provide opportunities to engage in income-generating activities. The public works program complements the cash transfer program by providing additional income to households in communities affected by unpredictable events such as droughts in order to make them more resilient to external shocks. The additional income – given in return for the labor of a household member on various public works activities is expected to enable program beneficiaries to smooth their consumption and protect their assets.

    Since its inception, the government’s cash transfer program now targets approximately 65,000 extremely poor households in five regions of Cameroon: Adamaoua, East, North, Northwest, and Far North. It also targets 5,000 urban households in the cities of Douala and Yaoundé, mainly in the underprivileged neighborhoods . Beneficiaries are required to spend the money on health, education, nutrition, public services, and training. Furthermore, beneficiary households are encouraged to develop income-generating activities to promote self-reliance. The total estimate cost of this project is USD 50 million and runs for five years, from 2013 to 2018.

    Additionally, with persisting insecurity challenges in crises affected areas, several nongovernmental organizations, as well as the UN and donor agencies are turning to cash transfers as a modality of delivering aid in hard to reach locations. Cash Based Transfers (CBT) programs have already been implemented in the East and Far North regions by various agencies including: World Food Programme, Catholic Relief Services (CRS), International Rescue Committee (IRC), French Red Cross, Premiere Urgence International (PUI), PAJED (GIZ) and Plan International, in the sectors of Food Security and Nutrition, Economic Recovery and Livelihoods and WASH.

    As of early November 2016, at least 10 organizations (including UN, INGOs, the World Bank as well as the Red Cross Movement) were involved in implementing CTPs across 7 Regions and 15 Departments. The majority of interventions captured through a 4W mapping were Food Security and Nutrition (48%); while other key sector-specific interventions included Economic Recovery/Livelihood (26%), Agricultural/livelihoods (16%) and Multi-sector and WASH, each at (5%). According to information received, all transfers were made largely through mobile money (44%), direct cash (31%) and cash/e-voucher 25%. While majority of the interventions (68%) were done through unconditional modality, most still had some sort of restriction attached to the transfers. The total value of these programmes is estimated US$ 90 million, reaching a total of over 518,000 individuals


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Niger


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Algeria, Libya, Mali, Niger

    FAITS SAILLANTS

    • Près de 10 pour cent de la population du Niger auront des besoins humanitaires en 2017.

    • Le taux de malnutrition aiguë sévère de 1,9 pour cent est à la limite du seuil d’urgence.

    • Selon les projections du cadre harmonisé, plus de 748 000 personnes seront en situation de crise alimentaire durant la période allant de juillet à septembre 2017.

    • Le bilan de la campagne agropastorale allie excédent céréalier et déficit fourrager.

    • Une tendance à la baisse du nombre de migrants est observée aux frontières avec la Libye et l’Algérie.

    1,9 million de personnes auront des besoins humanitaires en 2017

    Le Gouvernement du Niger et les partenaires humanitaires estiment que le pays restera marqué en 2017 par cinq défis majeurs à savoir : l’insécurité alimentaire, la malnutrition, les épidémies, les inondations et les mouvements de population.

    En 2017, il est estimé que près d’1,9 million de personnes, dont 340 000 à Diffa, auront des besoins humanitaires selon les analyses effectuées dans le cadre du processus d’élaboration de l’aperçu des besoins humanitaires.

    La situation humanitaire dans la région de Diffa requiert une attention particulière dans la mesure où, dans cette région, 48 pour cent de la population auront besoin d’assistance humanitaire en 2017 tandis qu’au niveau national près de 10 pour cent de la population sera dans le besoin.

    Cliquez ici pour accéder à l’Aperçu des besoins humanitaires de 2017.


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    Source: UN High Commissioner for Refugees
    Country: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo

    225.5 M required for 2016
    48.1 M contributions received, representing 21% of requirements
    177.3 M funding gap for the Central African Republic Situation

    All figures are displayed in USD


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    Source: Government of the United Kingdom, World Food Programme
    Country: American Samoa, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Botswana, Brazil, British Virgin Islands, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Chad, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gambia, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Indonesia, Kenya, Kiribati, Lao People's Democratic Republic (the), Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia (Federated States of), Montserrat, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, New Caledonia (France), Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue (New Zealand), Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Senegal, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Suriname, Swaziland, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Vanuatu, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), Viet Nam, World, Zambia, Zimbabwe

    This website allows you to explore how different scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change could change the geography of food insecurity in developing and least-developed countries. By altering the levels of future global greenhouse gas emissions and/or the levels of adaptation, you can see how vulnerability to food insecurity changes over time, and compare and contrast these different future scenarios with each other and the present day.


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    Source: Action Contre la Faim France
    Country: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal


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    Source: International Committee of the Red Cross
    Country: Mali

    Mali : des dizaines de milliers de personnes bénéficient d'un meilleur accès à l'eau

    Le CICR continue à oeuvrer au Mali pour améliorer les conditions de vie des détenus, réduire les conséquences du conflit sur la population civile et maintenir le contact entre les personnes séparées du fait du conflit et éventuellement leur permettre de regagner leur famille.

    Depuis le début de l'année 2016, nous continuons à fournir des vivres, des abris et des articles ménagers de première nécessité aux personnes déplacées à l'intérieur du pays. Nos équipes s'emploient également à faciliter l'accès des populations à l'eau potable et aux soins de santé ainsi qu'à réunir les familles dispersées.

    Faits marquants de l'action du CICR au Mali entre janvier et juin 2016

    • 1 181 tonnes de vivres ont été distribuées à 7 200 ménages vulnérables affectés par l'insécurité alimentaire.

    • 1 530 ménages dans les communes de Bamba, Temera, Bourem, Taboye et Bourra ont reçu plus de 30,6 tonnes de semences de riz.

    • 20 050 consultations curatives ont été réalisées,dont plus de 3 600 pour des enfants de moins de 5 ans. 469 femmes ont pu bénéficier d'accouchements accompagnés.

    • 45 000 personnes ont bénéficié d'un accès facilité à l'eau potable et à l'assainissement.

    • 3 452 détenus ont été visités dans le but d'améliorer leurs conditions de vie.


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    Source: US Agency for International Development
    Country: Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, United States of America

    HIGHLIGHTS

    • IOM reports 1.77 million IDPs are sheltering in northeastern Nigeria

    • WFP reaches nearly 1 million beneficiaries in northeastern Nigeria with cash and food assistance in December

    • UN 2017 Cameroon HRP requests more than $310 million to support humanitarian assistance efforts

    KEY DEVELOPMENTS

    • As of December, an estimated 1.77 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were sheltering in northeastern Nigeria, according to USAID/OFDA partner the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The December displacement figure represents an approximate 3 percent decrease compared to October, with the reduction primarily due to IDP returns to areas of origin in Adamawa and Borno states. In FY 2016 and to date in FY 2017, USAID/OFDA has provided nearly $9.3 million to IOM to support the Displacement Tracking Matrix and other critical emergency interventions in northeastern Nigeria. Among surveyed IDPs, food assistance continues to be the highest priority need.

    • In response to critical food insecurity in northeastern Nigeria, USAID/FFP partner the UN World Food Program (WFP) reached nearly 1 million beneficiaries in December, almost doubling the number of people reached during November. WFP assistance included cash-based transfers to more than 170,000 people living in areas with functioning markets, as well as in-kind food distributions supporting approximately 800,000 people, primarily in Borno.

    • In early January, the UN launched the 2017 Cameroon Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) that calls for $310 million in funding to support critical relief efforts targeting the needs of 1.2 million of the most vulnerable people in Cameroon. The UN noted, however, that almost 3 million people across Cameroon, including IDPs and refugees, are in need of assistance. Humanitarian needs are particularly critical in Cameroon’s Far North Region, where insecurity related to the Boko Haram insurgency has disrupted agriculture and commercial activities, compromising the population’s food security.


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    Source: US Agency for International Development
    Country: Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria


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    Source: Médecins Sans Frontières
    Country: Nigeria

    Over the past three months, our teams have distributed 810 tonnes of food in Maiduguri, northeastern Nigeria, which is enough to feed 26,000 families for two weeks.

    “As a medical organisation, it’s not usually MSF’s role to provide people with food,” says Phillippe Le Vaillant, MSF head of mission. “But there are people in desperate need. Other organisations were not stepping in up until now, so MSF was obliged to fill this gap.”

    Around one million people who fled violence and insecurity in Borno state, related to the ongoing conflict between armed groups and the Nigerian armed forces, are now living in Maiduguri, the largest city in northeastern Nigeria.

    Despite an increase in humanitarian assistance in recent months, thousands of people in the city are still in need of food, water and medical care.

    The most vulnerable are often people living in informal camps. These camps are not recognised by the authorities, so people receive little to no assistance, even though thousands live in them.

    “Many people came to Maiduguri with nothing but the clothes on their backs,” says Phillippe Le Vaillant, MSF head of mission. “They have almost no way to make money, the cost of food has more than doubled in 12 months, and years of violence and insecurity have pushed to the limit their ability to cope.”

    As well as running two large health facilities and two inpatient therapeutic feeding centre (ITFC) for severely malnourished children, MSF is trucking 80,000 to 100,000 litres of water into Maiduguri every day. This is an emergency measure to give people water to drink before a longer term solution can be put in place. MSF is also constructing new latrines, dislodging existing latrines and rehabilitating boreholes in camps in the centre of Maiduguri town.

    The need for food assistance is likely to increase even further from March, when stores from this year’s low-yielding harvest run out, marking the start of the annual lean season. As well as easing hunger, adequate nutrition gives people the best chance of fighting infections such as malaria and diarrhoea, which are more prevalent during the rainy season, which begins in June.

    “There is a lethal interplay between the lean and rainy seasons,” says MSF’s Dr Javed Ali. “Just as people’s immunity falls as nutrients in their diet decrease, the number of infections rises. This is particularly difficult for children and can leave them very vulnerable to developing severe malnutrition with complications.”

    From June until October this year, this vicious cycle had deadly consequences for hundreds of MSF’s patients in Maiduguri alone. In August, 75 out of 369 children admitted to MSF’s ITFC died. In November, as the rainy season subsided and patients’ medical conditions became less complicated, 21 out of 250 children admitted to the ITFC died.

    “During the summer, we were overwhelmed by the number of malnourished children with severe complications who needed treatment,” says Dr Javed. “Even though seasonal factors have now brought some respite, it does not mean that the emergency is over. Without a significant scale-up from national and international aid organisations, the situation could be even worse next year as millions remain displaced by the conflict.”

    Across Borno state, MSF is running 11 permanent health facilities, while its medical teams make regular visits to five more health facilities. MSF is deeply concerned for the hundreds of thousands of people would could be living in areas of the state where aid agencies have not been granted access, who may not have food, water or medical care. Read more about MSF’s work in Nigeria here.


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    Source: World Food Programme
    Country: Nigeria

    Responding to Nigeria Emergency

    Partners have sent medicines, medical kits, tarpaulins, water tanks, generators, prefabricated warehouses, and vehicles to Abuja, Lagos, and Maiduguri.

    For information about stocks available through UNHRD’s Loan and Borrow facility, please visit www.unhrd.org or contact unhrd.customerservice@wfp.org.


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    Source: ALIMA
    Country: Nigeria

    MUNA, BORNO STATE, January 5, 2017 – Seven-year-old Zadi weighed just 15 kilograms when her mother brought her to the Muna Village health clinic in northeastern Nigeria, just outside Borno State’s capital, Maiduguri, in early November. Her small body was bloated with fluid weight from edema and she was suffering from a severe type of malnutrition known as kwashiorkor. Doctors immediately referred her to the Inpatient Treatment Center.

    Zadi is just one of more than 1,600 children that ALIMA (The Alliance for International Medical Action) and partners have enrolled in the malnutrition program since the clinic opened in August.

    “We are seeing more than 30 new SAM [severe acute malnutrition] cases each week,” said Nicolas Mouly, ALIMA’s project coordinator in Muna. “There is no way to avoid malnutrition here. There is not enough food or water in Muna. The living conditions are poor and make people more susceptible to disease.”

    Since the insurgency began in 2009, an estimated 2.6 million people, including 1 million children, have been displaced across the country. Thirty thousand have taken refuge in Muna.

    Most arrive with little more than a small sack of personal items. Those that settle within host communities have little access to food, water or shelter. Local community members remain unable to farm or tend to their livestock due to the insecurity.

    The needs are huge.

    “We have nothing,” said 20-year-old Fatima Tolo, who arrived at the Muna Clinic in mid-December from Maiduguri, with her one-year-old daughter. “We are completely dependent on the inhabitants in the camp. My only concern is for food.”

    At the Muna Clinic, 26 percent of kids who come to the clinic are found to have severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and the rate of global acute malnutrition (GAM) is 43 percent. Within the neighboring communities, a MUAC screening led by the Ministry of Health and UNICEF, in October during a polio vaccination campaign, found the rate of SAM to be around 6.2 percent.

    But as more people need medical care, local health staff outside of Muna and Maiduguri have fled. Clinics have been abandoned. Most other humanitarian aid is concentrated within the nearby camps.

    Of the 743 health facilities in Borno state, the World Health Organisation says more than half are not functioning. Thirty-five percent have been completely destroyed. Only eight percent of those that are functioning have access to clean water.

    “Only ALIMA is providing medical care in the area,” said Hajja Femoudou, who fled Mafa four months ago with her one-and-a-half-year-old son, who has been suffering from vomiting and diarrhea. “They are helping cure him now.”

    ALIMA offers medical care to both internally displaced people (IDPs) and host community members, in addition to screening and treating children for malnutrition. In the past three months, ALIMA has performed more than 5,000 out-patient consultations. The majority of children who come suffer from watery diarrhea, respiratory infections and malaria.

    In the past month, the number of children coming to the clinic for malnutrition has more than doubled, in large part because more than 2,100 mothers from the community were trained in December to screen their children for malnutrition using a simple, colored bracelet that measures the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC).

    “It’s great that more mothers are identifying malnutrition in their children and bringing them here, but this shows us that the problem is even bigger than we thought,” said Margaret Otuya, ALIMA’s Medical Activity Manager in Muna. “It shows us that there are still children outside, in the community, that we don’t know about, with malnutrition.”

    Early detection of malnutrition using the MUAC model helps to reduce the number of children requiring hospitalisation.

    Zadi, who was one of the more severe cases, was discharged on December 5, following inpatient therapeutic treatment. She now weighs a healthier 18kg and is no longer bloated from edema. Her parents continue the therapeutic feeding program for her from their home.

    But while Zadi’s story had a happy ending this time, until the conflict ends, there is a need for all aid agencies to scale up their response to meet the needs of the most vulnerable.

    ALIMA is an independent humanitarian medical organization that pools the expertise of international aid workers, national medical organizations and global research institutions, in order to provide quality medical care to people in need, while carrying out cutting-edge research to improve humanitarian medicine. Based in Dakar, Senegal, ALIMA has treated more than 2 million patients in 12 countries since its founding in 2009, and launched 10 research projects focusing on malnutrition, malaria and Ebola.

    In Nigeria, ALIMA has been responding to urgent medical needs in Borno State, where over one million displaced people are living among host communities and in camps. Between July and December 2016, >more than 7,000 malnourished children were admitted to ALIMA’s nutrition programs. The ALIMA projects in Nigeria are currently supported by the Office of Humanitarian Affairs of the European Commission (ECHO), USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), and UNICEF.


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Niger


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    Source: World Food Programme
    Country: Mali, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

    BAMAKO – Working closely with the European Union (EU), the Government of the United Kingdom (UK) and the Government of Mali, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) provided emergency assistance to more than a quarter of a million needy people in Mali last year.

    The EU and UK contributed EUR 5 million in 2016 through the European Commission Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), which enabled WFP to implement life-saving programmes in northern and central Mali.

    According to the National Food and Nutrition Security Assessment, 425,000 people were found to be severely food insecure in 2016. A National Response Plan was developed in June 2016 to address the crisis, providing WFP with a framework to deliver financial and operational support. Together with the government, WFP assisted 205,000 people suffering severe food insecurity, including internally displaced persons and repatriated refugees during the pastoral and agro-pastoral lean season (from June to September).

    Thanks to contributions from the EU and UK, WFP was able to deliver critical support to the Mali Government’s Food Security Commissariat.

    “As a result of these funds, the most vulnerable people, especially those in northern and central Mali, suffering both severe drought and continued conflict, have received life-saving support,” said WFP Mali Country Director Silvia Caruso.

    The EU contribution additionally enabled WFP to provide essential nutritional assistance to 92,200 children aged 6 to 23 months and 45,500 pregnant and nursing women in Gao, Mopti and Timbuktu.

    Malnutrition presents serious, potentially fatal risks for children in Mali. The nutritional survey indicated moderate acute malnutrition rates were at 12.4 percent nationally. In Timbuktu, the rate rose to 17.5 percent, far exceeding the World Health Organization’s critical emergency threshold of 10 percent.

    “The European Union reacted quickly to the nutrition crisis in northern and central Mali,” Caruso said, “serving as a key player in tackling malnutrition across the country.”

    During 2016, nearly 350,000 Malian people - in acute need of food or nutrition assistance - received vital support from the people of Europe, through the European Union.

    WFP is the world's largest humanitarian agency fighting hunger worldwide, delivering food assistance in emergencies and working with communities to improve nutrition and build resilience. Each year, WFP assists some 80 million people in around 80 countries.

    Follow us on Twitter: @WFP_WAfrica, @wfp_media

    For more information please contact (email address: firstname.lastname@wfp.org):
    Laura Lee Morris, WFP/Bamako: +223 75 81 44 67
    Simon Pierre Diouf , WFP/Dakar: +221 77801 22 21


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    Source: UN High Commissioner for Refugees
    Country: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria

    Sécurité

    La situation sécuritaire dans la région de l’Extrême-Nord demeure incertaine. La période de fin d’année a été relativement calme. Cependant, un attentat Kamikaze perpétré le matin du 25 décembre à Mora, a fait deux morts dont le Kamikaze et un membre du comité de vigilance, et cinq blessés. Les consignes de vigilance et de sécurité édictées par les forces de défense et de sécurité restent en vigueur.

    Développements majeurs

    Un atelier de formation s’est tenu, en collaboration avec le Fond National de l’Emploi (FNE), les 20 et 22 décembre à l’intention des réfugiés urbains de Douala, en vue de les outiller à la recherche d’emploi. Un total de de 59 individus a ainsi été formé à la rédaction d’un bilan professionnel, à la conception d'un curriculum vitae détaillé et élaboration d'une lettre de motivation attrayante et aux techniques pour une entrevue d'emploi réussie avec un employeur. Ceci porte à 128 le nombre de réfugiés urbains formés en techniques de recherche d’emploi et montage et gestion de projet dans le cadre du projet livelihood lancé à Douala.


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal


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    Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    Country: Gambia


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    Source: Assessment Capacities Project
    Country: Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, World, Zimbabwe

    OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST - MARCH 2017

    As of 11 August, there was an approximate 55–60% chance of La Niña conditions developing during the last quarter of 2016 and first quarter of 2017. It is forecasted to be weak and short-lived.

    La Niña typically brings extreme weather to the same regions most affected by El Niño, where people’s coping capacities have already been eroded. La Niña causes opposite conditions to those associated with El Niño: areas now experiencing drought are likely to face flooding, and areas that have seen excessive rainfall are likely to experience drought. The effects of the 2015/2016 El Niño will continue to be felt over the coming months, and estimates indicate that it will take approximately two years for communities to recover, even if agricultural conditions improve later this year. La Niña is likely to exacerbate the negative impacts of El Niño and stretch affected communities to their absolute limits.

    La Niña ordinarily lasts between 6 and 24 months. Since 1950, there have been 23 El Niño and 14 La Niña events. Among the 14 La Niña events, nine came immediately after an El Niño year.

    EASTERN AFRICA

    La Niña increases the likelihood of both above-average and below-average rainfall in certain areas of eastern Africa. A potential La Niña is likely to have the most severe impact on Kenya and south-central Somalia. Conflict and displacement will exacerbate the impacts of the climate conditions in many of the affected countries.

    Drier than normal conditions are particularly likely between November 2016 and March 2017 in southern Ethiopia, south and central Somalia, northwestern and eastern Kenya, and northeastern Tanzania. These would negatively affect crops harvested in February and March, worsen livestock body conditions, and trigger increased livestock migration, which facilitates the spread of livestock diseases.

    Above-average rainfall is likely to bring relief to areas currently impacted by drought and enhance restoration of pasture and crop production. However, localised flooding is likely in northern Ethiopia, central and southern Sudan, and eastern South Sudan, with associated damage to crops, livestock, and infrastructure.

    El Niño has already triggered drought in Ethiopia, northern Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and eastern Chad. As of 4 July, approximately 28 million people in the Horn of Africa region were in Crisis or Emergency food security outcomes (IPC Phases 3 and 4) and in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. Severe water shortages have resulted in the use of unprotected water sources, which increases the risk of waterborne diseases.

    ETHIOPIA

    Ethiopia is currently experiencing its worst drought in 50 years. The worst affected areas include Wag Himra, East and West Hararghe, and pastoral areas in Shinile and southern Afar. Humanitarian needs have more than tripled since 2015. 9.7 million people are in need of food assistance, more than 2.3 million people need immediate agricultural support, and the number of people needing emergency health interventions nearly doubled from 3.6 million in December 2015 to 6.8 million in March 2016. 6.8 million children are at risk of hunger, disease, and lack of water. The severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseload is expected to increase by 80%, from a yearly average of 250,000 to 458,000 children in 2016.

    La Niña increases the probability of below-average rainfall during the deyr/hageya season (October–December) in central and southern Somali regions, resulting in earlier depletion of water and pasture, which will likely cause declines in livestock body conditions, productivity, and market values.

    Short-term and seasonal forecasts suggest that heavy rainfall in the coming months, induced by La Niña, is likely to lead to significant flooding, particularly in northern parts of the country. Poor households will face displacement, loss of crops, and loss of livelihood assets.

    The situation is also exacerbated by the large refugee population of 737,000, including 286,000 from South Sudan.

    SOMALIA

    Countrywide, close to 4.7 million people (equivalent to 38% of the population) are in need of humanitarian assistance, of which 1.7 million are in Puntland and Somaliland. More than 950,000 people are severely food insecure (IPC Phases 3 and 4). Severe drought has seriously affected parts of Puntland and Somaliland. Access to safe water has been severely reduced and the cereal harvest in Somaliland is 87% below the five-year average. The use of unsafe water significantly increases the risk of waterborne and vector-borne diseases. More than 10,000 cases of acute watery diarrhoea/cholera have been reported (140% of cases reported in 2015). As a result of the drought, there has been a large-scale abnormal outmigration of livestock in northern Somalia, including 60–70% of households from pastoral areas of Puntland.

    Erratic rains have resulted in Gu harvests (July and August) of 30-50% below the post-war (1995-2015) average. Of particular concern are riverine areas of Hiiraan, where poor rainfall and flooding has destroyed approximately 80% of standing crops. The Gu harvest represents one of the two main agricultural seasons in Somalia. Seasonal forecasts and the probability of La Niña conditions throughout the deyr season, the second main agricultural season, indicate below-average rainfall from October to December. This is expected to lead to below-average deyr harvests (January 2017) as well as fail to adequately restore pasture and water resources. Southern agro-pastoral areas are of highest concern, where below-average deyr production is likely to follow significantly below-average gu production. Food security is expected to deteriorate throughout much of Somalia from October to January 2017.

    The situation is exacerbated by insecurity, which is constraining humanitarian access. The anticipated return of a large number of refugees from Kenya following the announced closure of Dadaab refugee camp is also expected to significantly increase the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance.

    SUDAN

    4.6 million people are acutely food insecure, including more than 100,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Approximately 3.5 million people are affected by El Niño, which has influenced delayed rains, below-average rainfall and intermittent dry spells. People are in affected in 82 localities in Abyei, Al Gezira, Blue Nile, all Darfur states, Gedaref, Kassala, all Kordofan states, Red Sea, Sennar and White Nile. This includes 1.5 million women and over 680,000 children. Conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile exacerbates the situation, as it causes displacement, disrupts livelihoods and markets, and constrains humanitarian access.

    In June and July, above-average rainfall in most surplus-producing areas of east and central Sudan has positively affected crop production and generated sufficient pasture for animals in most areas. However, excessive rainfall caused severe flash floods that damaged homes, infrastructure and productive assets, particularly in the states of North Darfur, West Kordofan, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, Gezira, Khartoum, and Kassala.

    La Niña is likely to result in above-average rainfall over many parts of Sudan during the main 2016 rainy season (July – September). This increased rainfall will likely result in at least average 2016/17 crop production, but may also cause flooding in flood-prone areas of central and southern Sudan. More refugees are expected to arrive, fleeing conflict in South Sudan, which will add to needs.

    SOUTH SUDAN

    4.8 million people, more than one-third of the population, are affected by severe food insecurity (IPC Phases 3, 4, and 5). Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes persist in parts of Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Western Bahr el Ghazal. The rising food insecurity and worrying levels of malnutrition coincide with the lean season (April to July), when household food reserves are low and market dependency high.

    Drought-like conditions, combined with economic crisis and insecurity has particularly affected Northern Bahr el Ghazal, where 845,000 people are projected to be food insecure and global acute malnutrition is double the emergency threshold at 33.3%. A small number of households in Aweil East and Aweil North have exhausted coping strategies and are likely to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

    La Niña is likely to result in above-average rainfall in South Sudan. Overall, this is likely to lead to an improvement in crop production, but also result in potential flooding in eastern parts of the country, particularly Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei and Upper Nile.

    A new wave of conflict is expected, and the disruption and displacement means the situation could rapidly reach catastrophic proportions.

    KENYA

    Food security is deteriorating in line with the lean season, especially in Garissa and Tana River counties. However, the lean season started a month earlier than normal in the northeastern pastoral areas, in July, due to poor rains. The long rains maize harvest is expected to be below average, which represents 70% of annual production. Rangeland conditions in most areas are below normal and continue to deteriorate. Some households migrated their livestock to dry-season grazing areas two month early, in June rather than August. The majority of households are in Stressed food security conditions (IPC Phase 2).

    La Niña is likely to result in below-average rainfall in northwestern and eastern Kenya, both during the short rains in late 2016, where the forecast is 50-60% of average rainfall for many parts of eastern Kenya, and possibly also during the March–May 2017 long rains, which likely will increase food insecurity. The announced closing of Dadaab refugee camp, in northern Kenya, hosting close to 350,000 refugees, will also increase the food insecurity of this population, and could place additional strain on host populations in this area.

    ERITREA

    Although little information exists on the situation in Eritrea, due to the fact that the government restricts access of humanitarian actors inside the country, satellite imagery from late 2015 showed areas of Eritrea’s highlands and western lowlands with crops around 50%-70% of normal. The effects of El Niño and pre-existing factors related to household food and livelihood security have exacerbated women and children’s vulnerability. Malnutrition is high among children under five, especially in the lowlands. Acute malnutrition remains one of the major underlying causes of death in the country. The kiremt rains (June to September) started on time, indicating good prospects for agricultural yields. La Niña is likely to bring wetter conditions to Eritrea.

    SOUTHERN AFRICA

    Early June forecasts indicate that La Niña is likely to develop during the start of the 2016/17 agricultural season (October–April). In southern Africa, La Niña tends to be associated with above-average rainfall, although initial model forecasts suggest that precipitation will be near average for October–December. The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon influences El Niño and La Niña’s impact on rainfall in southern Africa; more information on this will be available later in the year

    Should rainfall be above average, it is likely to speed up the regeneration of pastureland and lead to above-average crop production for the summer harvest (April­–July). This would also improve labour opportunities and income levels for households, currently experiencing the worst El Niño-induced drought in 35 years. However, positive effects of La Niña on crop production would only alleviate food insecurity from February 2017. Furthermore, excessive rainfall increases the risk of localised flooding, the risk of seed loss, crop damage, livestock morbidity and mortality, and infrastructure damage. There is also an increased likelihood of cyclones forming in the Mozambique channel, with associated potential landfall and flooding across the region.

    Currently, nearly 40 million people are food insecure, including 23 million who require urgent humanitarian assistance. Approximately 2.7 million children face severe acute malnutrition. Food insecurity is expected to peak during the October 2016 to March 2017 lean season. Agricultural production has been crippled and almost half a million drought-related livestock deaths have been reported while water sources and reservoirs are severely depleted. Labour opportunities have also been severely affected and poor farming households are unable to fulfil their food requirements due to limited income earning opportunities. The drought has compounded existing vulnerabilities, resulting in severe food shortages, particularly in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Swaziland, and Lesotho.

    MOZAMBIQUE

    El Niño brought below-average rainfall resulting in drought in the south and parts of the central region of the country. Poor households in these areas are having increasing difficulties meeting their basic food needs due to inadequate supplies and high staple food prices. 1.5 million people are facing severe food insecurity (Crisis and Emergency), and this number is expected to rise to 2 million during the peak of the lean season (October 2016–March 2017). 850,000 children are affected by the drought.

    La Niña will likely lead to above-normal rainfall between January and March 2017, increasing the chance of moderate to severe flooding in some river basins in the south and central regions. Vulnerable displaced households in these flood prone areas are expected to need humanitarian assistance, particularly related to food, shelter, WASH and provision of health services. The impact of the current effects of the El Niño as well as the potential flood risks on vulnerable populations is exacerbated by ongoing conflict, which has displaced an unspecified number of people and also disrupted food supplies from the north to the south.

    ZIMBABWE

    Crisis food insecurity continues in southern districts, as well as some marginal areas in the extreme north, but the bulk of the traditional cereal-producing areas of the north are Stressed. The situation in the north is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for poor households between October and January, once they have depleted own-produced stocks. An estimated 4.1 million people, equivalent to 44% of the rural population, will be food insecure by the first quarter of 2017; this is an increase of 47% from the first quarter of 2016. The nutrition situation is deteriorating, with GAM rates well above 10% in five districts. La Niña is expected to bring with it above average rainfall, increasing the likelihood of extreme flooding in Zimbabwe. This can damage crops and worsen the situation for the already vulnerable population.

    LESOTHO

    As a result of the El Niño, 25% of the population is affected by drought. Currently, more than 500,000 people are food insecure and 709,000 people are projected to be food insecure at the height of Lesotho’s lean season (November–March 2017). The drought has resulted in crop production contributing to less than 10% of annual cereal requirements. There is also a decline in the access to safe water and 23% of communities are using unprotected water sources. Chronic malnutrition is at 33% and a large increase in diarrhoeal diseases has been reported.

    La Niña conditions, with above average rain, are likely during the start of the next cropping season (November–January). This is expected to have some positive impact on the current situation in the country, although it will likely take a while to recover from the current dire situation. More opportunities for labour are expected to gradually contribute to improved food access among very poor and poor households.

    MALAWI

    Malawi is facing its worst food security crisis in over a decade. 6.5 million people – 39% of the population – including 3.5 million children, will not be able to meet their annual minimum food requirements during the 2016/17 consumption period. This is a 30% increase from 2015/2016. Large populations of very poor and poor households, especially in the south, are currently Stressed and facing Crisis. 24 districts have been affected.

    National food availability is at its lowest level in the past ten years and June maize prices were 80% above 2015 prices and 193% above the five-year average. More than 42.4% of all children in Malawi are stunted.

    Early forecasts indicate that a La Niña event likely will result in average to above-average rainfall during the next cropping season (November–January), thus having a positive impact on the situation. However, due to the current dire situation, even a normal start to the 2016/17 cropping season is not expected to improve acute food insecurity outcomes in the immediate future.

    SWAZILAND

    The drought in Swaziland has significantly decreased crop production, killed livestock and devastated livelihoods throughout the country. Some 350,000 people – 30% of the population – including 189,000 children need emergency food assistance. The number of people expected to endure some degree of food insecurity is expected to rise to 640,000 between March and May 2017. The most affected regions are Lubombo and Shiselweni. Water shortage and deteriorating sanitation are increasing the risk of waterborne diseases. La Niña conditions are expected to result in above average rain, with possibility of flooding and storms.

    MADAGASCAR

    Main and off-season harvests were well below average or failed in parts of southern Madagascar due to El Niño-induced drought. In the country’s seven most affected districts (Amboasary, Ambovombe, Tsihombe, Beloha, Bekily, Ampanihy and Betioky), 1.1 million people are food insecure, including 665,000 severely food insecure. GAM rates of 8% have been recorded across the most affected districts, with 10% in certain areas. In the worst affected pockets of Androy region in the south, households are expected to face large food consumption gaps - in line with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes - between October and January 2017. La Niña increases the chance of above-average rainfall as well as the likelihood of the formation of cyclones in the Mozambique channel, with possible landfall on Madagascar.


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