Clear improvement in food security and seasonal progress
KEY MESSAGES
The rainy season has been better than predicted by May forecasts, with above-average levels of precipitation and a good temporal distribution of rainfall, resulting in generally good growing conditions, except in the northwestern reaches of the agropastoral livelihood zone. In spite of the underplanting of diéri crops in localized areas of the rainfed agriculture zone, the national cereal harvest is still expected to be better than average thanks to good harvest prospects for flood-recession and irrigated crops.
With agropastoral production expected to be better than the five year average, increased income from on-farm employment, steady improvement in terms of trade, and the continuation of assistance programs, general improvement of food security across the country is expected. Poor households in areas of concern should be in IPC Phase 1: Minimal acute food insecurity between October and December of this year.
Between January and March, the reduction of certain components of social assistance programs and the gradual ending of humanitarian aid programs between January and March of next year is likely to downgrade household food security to IPC Phase 2: Stress, particularly for poor households in northwestern agropastoral areas and in the southeast, which has been getting an influx of Malian refugees for the past several months.
