Deyr rains continue in the many parts of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia
Moderate to heavy rains were received from October 11 to 20 in most parts of the South and parts of the central and northeastern regions. However, most parts of the Northwest, including Sool, Sanaag, Toghdeer, Awdal, and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, were generally dry during this period (Figure 1).
In the Northeast, near average rains were reported in the most of the Hawd and Addun pastoral livelihood zones as well as in parts of Sool-Sanag plateau pastoral and Karkaar-Dharor pastoral livelihood zones. Field reports indicate light showers also fell in patches of East Golis pastoral livelihood zone, contrary to satellite rainfall estimates. However, pasture and water conditions are below average in most zones of Bari Region due to the effects dry Hagaa season.
Improvements would require substantial rains over the coming month or two. In the Northwest, most areas have continued to experience little or no rains for all of October. However, pasture, browse, and rangeland conditions are near average following July to September Karan rains in most livelihood zones. Field reports also indicate opportunistic, but normal livestock migration to areas with better pasture and browse condition. Crop establishment in the agropastoral areas is average, and the harvest appears to be on schedule for November.
In the cowpea belt (central regions agropastoral livelihood zone), coastal Deeh of the cental region, and Addun pastoral livelihood zone, light to moderate rains were received, but some parts received above normal rain (Figure 2). Also, the Hawd of Dhusamareb District received moderate rains. Of particular concern is the Hawd of Abduwak and Adado Districts, which had limited or no rain from October 11 to 20. The rain gauge network from the central regions collected 62.3 millimeters (mm), 149 mm, and 95 mm of rainfall at the stations in Eldher, Harardher, and Wisil in the cowpea belt in Hobyo District, respectively. Recent rains resulted in average water and pasture condition in areas that received rains.
In the South, moderate to heavy rainfall with good coverage was reported in most livelihood zones of Middle and Lower Juba, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Bay, and Bakol, which caused localized flooding. Rains have supported seed germination and encouraged planting in both agropastoral and riverine areas. In Lower Shabelle, in-migrated livestock from neighboring regions of Hiran, Middle Shabelle, and Bay Regions returned to their usual wet season locations due to overall improving pasture and water conditions. From October 11 to 20, Bulo Burti in Hiran and Baidoa in Bay had rain gauge recordings of 71.5 mm and 66.5 mm, respectively, with three and four rainy days. In Sakow in Middle Juba and in Jamame in Lower Juba, the rain gauges recorded 39 mm and 64 mm of rainfall, with two and three rainy days, respectively. Exceptions to moderate to heavy rainfall are found in parts of Lower Shabelle including the coastal areas between Afgoye and Barawa. There were also pocket areas of low rainfall in El Barde, Rabdhure, and Wajid Districts in Bakol Region and in agropastoral areas of Sakow District in Middle Juba Region. In Gedo Region, with the exceptions of pockets of near average rains in Bardera, Garbaharey , Lugh, and Elwak, most of the region remained dry.
The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows that vegetation conditions from October 11 to 20 were largely normal in the central regions and parts of the North, following earlier rains in September and October (Figure 3). However, in most of the South and the Northeast, vegetation conditions continue to be below normal, due to the cumulative effects of both poor July to September Hagaa rains and April to June Gu rains.
The seven-day weather forecast (Figure 4) ending October 29 indicates that moderate to heavy rains are likely in most of the South and in the central regions with moderate showers between 10 and 40 mm expected in most of the North.
However, parts of Bari and Awdal Regions are forecast to be dry.