FEWS NET published a Rain Watch for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr rains to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is summary of Deyr 2012 seasonal performance and the final. This report is produced in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).
The October to December Deyr 2012 rains were largely normal to above normal.
Slightly earlier than normal Deyr 2012 rains started in early October in the central and southern regions. Over the course of the October to December Deyr season, rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribution, and spatial coverage across the country (Figure 1). Comparing the rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October to December and the 1983 to 2011 long-term mean (LTM) shows that rainfall in most of the central, southern, and the northeastern regions has been normal to above normal (Figure 2).
In the Northwest, most of West Golis and Guban pastoral and agropastoral areas had dry weather from October to December, which is the normal pattern at this time of the year. Rangeland conditions are near average following the July to September Karan rains in these livelihood zones. Parts of the Hawd, the Nugal Valley, East Golis pastoral, and the Sool Plateau pastoral livelihood zones received rains with mixed performance. However, most parts of the Sool Plateau and some parts of East Golis and Gabi Valley in Sanaag Region and the Nugal Valley in Sool Region had poor rainfall since the start of the season in early October. Field reports confirm normal livestock migration to areas with better pasture and browse condition.
In the Northeast, in general, the rainfall performance in pastoral areas has been fairly good and evenly distributed, including in the Coastal Deeh livelihood zone, which had suffered from large rainfall deficits over the past several seasons. In addition, ground reports indicate the Northeast also received moderate to heavy rains following Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan in late October. As a result, both water and pasture condition are largely normal in most areas. However, in Nugal Valley pastoral livelihood zone in Garowe and Eyl Districts, significantly poor rains forced livestock outmigration to adjacent livelihood zoness such as the Sool Plateau, Addun pastoral, and Hawd pastoral livelihood zone within the Northeast. On December 24 and 25, torrential, cold rains which fell for nearly 25 hours in parts of Eyl and Dangorayo Districts, and a number of livestock died due to hypothermia. Several people were also affected, and they needed to be hospitalized.
In the central regions, both satellite rainfall estimates and ground reports confirm that the October to December Deyr 2012 rainfall in most of the Hawd, Addun pastoral livelihood zone, and the cowpea-growing areas (central agropastoral livelihood zone) were average with good frequency and distribution. In addition, ground reports indicate good rainfall in most parts of Coastal Deeh livelihood zone, which had received poor precipitation during the April to June Gu 2012. As a result, both pasture and water availability have significantly improved. Environmental conditions are expected to support improved livestock body conditions through the January to March dry Jilaal season. Rains have improved cowpea crop development, and cowpea production should be above the post-war average (PWA) (1995 to 2011) in early January 2013.
In the South, most of the regions received widely distributed, moderate to heavy rains according to both ground data and satellite estimates. Rains were beneficial in most agropastoral, pastoral, and riverine livelihood zones. Browse improved in all grazing areas in the South. Water availability has also improved, especially in the rainfed areas. These rains have improved the conditions of the standing maize, sorghum, cowpea, and sesame crops. Exceptions to this generally positive season are found in the rainfed, agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and northern Gedo Region where despite recent rains, total seasonal rainfall was been insufficient for normal crop development during October and early November. Recent rains have improved rangeland resources, and vegetation conditions are average to above average when compared to historical averages in many parts of the country. However, in Coastal Deeh of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba Regions, a large deterioration in rangeland vegetation conditions is observed (Figure 3).