KEY ISSUES
The analysis of the FSNAU’s preliminary post-Deyr 2012 assessment and monthly monitoring data suggest that the food security and nutrition situation in Somalia will continue improving in the first half of 2013. Thus, the number of population in food security crisis will reduce in post-Deyr and most livelihoods in Somalia are likely to be classified in Stressed (Phase 2) based on the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) scale. However, the livestock dependent coastal areas of central and northern Somalia (including Bandarbeyla district) as well as the agropastoral livelihood zone in Jamame district are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to constrained access to food by poor households as a result of limited livestock assets and the looming poor Deyr harvest in Jamame in January-February 2013. No Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is anticipated in rural and urban livelihoods of the country over the projection period. However, the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the settlements who have limited access to food will remain in food security crisis. The recent nutrition surveys indicate sustained Critical to Very Critical nutrition situations in most IDP settlements in the North and in the central regions. The nutrition situation in the South, in a few areas in the North and in the central regions is likely to remain Critical to Very Critical. This scenario is largely attributable to the underlying causes of malnutrition in Somalia such as lack of health infrastructure and poor feeding practices as well as expected seasonal outbreaks of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) and measles during the next rainy season from April to June. Humanitarian assistance will be required to meet the food and nutrition needs of IDPs and other vulnerable groups. Interventions aimed at protecting livelihoods, reducing food consumption gaps and reducing acute malnutrition will be needed in the livelihoods identified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Programs for disaster risk reduction, protecting livelihoods, and building resilience will be appropriate in the rest of the country, where the population in Stress (IPC Phase 2) will not be able to meet essential non-food expenditures without engaging in irreversible coping strategies.