First Deyr 2012 rains light to moderate in many parts of southern and central Somalia
Slightly earlier than normal Deyr 2012 rains started between October 1 and 10, the first dekad of October, with mixed trends in terms of amount, temporal distribution and spatial distribution across the southern and central regions. The light to moderate rains ranged from 10 to 75 millimeters (mm) (Figure 1). Comparing the actual rainfall estimate for October 1 to 10 and the longterm mean (1983 to 2011) shows that the rainfall received in most areas of the North, the Juba Valley, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, and southern Bay has been between zero to 20 percent of normal (Figure 2).
In the Northwest, despite the moderate and generalized rains received during the last dekad of September, most livelihood zones had dry weather during the first dekad of October. However parts of the Hawd pastoral livelihood zone in Hargeysa District and west Golis pastoral livelihood zone in Togdheer Region received moderate rains. Dry weather had hampered pasture regeneration and caused deteriorating water conditions, but water was replenished by the late September rains.
Similarly, in the Northeast most areas remained dry during the reporting period with the exceptions of pockets in Bari and Nugal Regions, the Hawd pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal Region, and northern Mudug Region where moderate rains fell.
Accordingly, a slight improvement in pasture and water conditions is expected in these areas over the coming days.
In many parts of central regions, light to moderate rains were received. Light rains with average spatial distribution fell in the cowpea belt and coastal Deeh livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug Regions. Parts of the Adun and Hawd pastoral livelihood zones received moderate rains. These rains have further supported the germination process for cowpea and sorghum and have had a noticeable impact on water and pasture regeneration. Rain gauges in the central regions recorded 24– 48.7 mm of rain with one to three rainy days during the first dekad of October.
In the South, during this dekad, satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2) and field reports indicate that most pastoral and agricultural areas recorded no to light rains ranging from zero to 10 mm with poor coverage. Field reports confirmed that, generally, rains are localized and poorly distributed in both pastoral and agricultural areas. However, localized areas of Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakol, and Hiran received moderate rains. During the first dekad of October, rain gauges in Baidoa in Bay Region and Hudur in Bakol Region recorded 70 mm and 135 mm of rainfall. In Middle Shabelle region, most areas received light to moderate rains, except in Aden Yabal District where there were localized, light showers. In Jowhar, the rain gauge recorded 45 mm of rain in one day. Similarly, in some riverine, agricultural areas of Hiran Region and Buale District, light to moderate rains were received with various intensities and varied coverage. Rain gauges in Beletweyne and also in Halgan in Buloburte District recorded 20 mm and 64.5 mm in one day, respectively. Rains have encouraged riverine farmers to start planting and have regenerated pasture and replenished water sources.
The current satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows poor levels (Figure 3) in most parts of the country due to the effect of the especially dry Hagaa season, the failure of Kalahan rains in the last third of September, and continued dry weather in many areas during the first third of October. The seven-day weather forecast, valid through October 18, indicates that most parts of Bari, Nugal, and Sool Regions, most of the central regions of Galgadud and southern Mudug, and the southern regions of Bay, Bakol, Hiran, Gedo, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba will experience moderate rains between 20 and 50 mm (Figure 4). FEWS NET in collaboration with FSNAU, SWALIM, and other partners will closely monitor the progress of the October to December Deyr rains and will issue an updated rain watch every ten days.