Cumulative seasonal rainfall deficits grow over parts of the Eastern Horn
KEY MESSAGES
The October to December rains are expected to cease normally later this month and may have already stopped in the northern receiving areas. The overall October to December rainfall performance has been mixed with some localized areas having significant cumulative rainfall deficits, including parts of the southeastern lowlands, the Northeast, and the southern coastal marginal acticultural areas of Kenya, the Afder Zone of Somali Region in Ethiopia, neighbouring Dolo and Luuq Districts of southern Somalia, and the northern coastal areas of Tanzania.
October to December rains over surplus-producing cropping areas in Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania, western Kenya, and western Ethiopia have been well above normal contributing to expected increases in agricultural production during October to February harvests.
Long-term forecasts from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University (IRI) suggest that there is an increased likelihood for normal to below normal rainfall forecast for the March to May 2013 rainy season in the eastern Horn.