Continued poor pastoral conditions aggravate hardships for pastoral households
KEY MESSAGES
Poor agropastoral households in central and northern areas of the country who experienced large shortfalls in their 2014/15 crop production and sharp reductions in their household incomes are currently resorting to atypical strategies and are facing food consumption deficits. As a result, these households are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
Pastoral conditions across the country are currently unusually poor. While different meteorological centers have conflicting outlooks for the upcoming rainy season, a late start-of-season, as predicted in forecasts by the PRESAO Forum, could delay the improvement in pastoral conditions which, in turn, could mean higher than usual livestock mortality rates. This would negatively affect household livelihoods and curtail food access.
Cumulative rainfall forecasts are also mixed at this time. According to the PRESAO Forum, there is a high probability of average to above-average rainfall. Meanwhile, forecasts by other organizations (ECMWF, NMME, IRI, and UK MET) indicate a higher probability of below-average rainfall. Given these inconsistencies, June updates to current forecast models will need to be closely monitored.
