Good household food security outlook, with prices expected to drop
KEY MESSAGES
The ongoing harvests of all rainfed crops, the sharp uptick in seasonal employment, and price increases for livestock and cash crops are strengthening food access for food-insecure households who were previously in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). Moreover, the improvement in household purchasing power and the gradual replenishing of food stocks will restore seasonal food access and bring food insecurity levels back down to IPC Phase 1 (Minimal/None) between now and next March.
The expected good harvests and the likelihood of at least average to above-average food stocks (even in areas with structural deficits), above-normal farm income levels, social assistance, and the continuation of humanitarian aid programs (cash transfer programs and distributions of free food aid) through the end of December are mitigating the impact of debt incurred by poor households during this past year.
Staple cereal prices are still 17 to 70 percent above-average, though down by 8 to 12 percent from their peak levels back in August. Cereal prices are expected to gradually decline in line with normal seasonal price trends after the harvest, between October and December.
Subsidized cereal sales ended in September and the government is not planning to continue providing any further humanitarian aid between now and December. Free food distribution programs, which were delayed in getting started, will end between October and December.