Situation Analysis
Description of the disaster
In Nigeria, the National Electoral Commission confirmed that the elections, which had been scheduled for 14 February 2015; would be postponed by six weeks until 28 March 2015 for the Presidential elections, and 11 April 2015 for the Governorship elections. Despite the government’s assurances that the elections will be held on the rescheduled date, there have been indication from some quarters that they may be shifted ahead again, however this may be resisted by the opposition and civil society groups. Many international organizations including the United Nations (UN) have predicted violence related to the elections. The situation remains tense, and continues to evolve as the major political parties carry on with their campaigns to canvass for vote.
As of 3 March 2015, more than 100 people have been killed, and 300 injured in the north eastern, north central and north western areas of the country following the detonation by suicide bombers of improvised explosive devices (IED) in markets and motor parks - with a minimum of three of these incidents occurring per week. The leader of the Boko Haram has uploaded a video on YouTube indicating that the militant group intends to impede the upcoming elections; and though the joint military forces have seen progress in their fight against them, communities in the north east continue to be invaded by insurgents. In the Niger Delta, militant groups that have been relatively inactive following the issue of an amnesty and the election of the current President (Dr. Goodluck Jonathan) have warned of violence if he is not re-elected. It has also been reported that there had been movement of residents between the North and South with some going to their states of origin to vote while others are fleeing for fear of election violence in states other than theirs. However, the idea of the ruling party and other pressure groups to deploy the military during the elections has been opposed by the main opposition party and the Federal Legislators. It has been based on information contained in an audio tape released on Ekiti state elections held last year, where the rigging of the governorship elections was linked to the deployment of the military.
On 24 December 2015, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) released CHF 239,946 from the Disaster Relief and Emergency Fund (DREF) to ensure that the Nigerian Red Cross Society (NRCS) is prepared to meet the immediate needs of populations affected by election related violence if and when it should occur, with activities planned for a period of three months. It is estimated that 75 per cent of the activities have been completed and progress made in accordance with the agreed Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) in the following areas:
Contingency planning workshop was carried out as planned, attended by 45 participants, and a contingency plan is in the process of being finalized.
Trained 40 Emergency First Aid Team (EFAT) trainer of trainers (ToT) and the cascading of this training at branch level carried out.
Procurement/distribution of first aid items and protective equipment.
Terms of reference (ToR) for an operational review / lessons learned exercise has been developed; with the composition of the team under discussion.
This Operations Update is requesting a timeframe extension of two months, following the decision by the National Electoral Commission to postpone the elections. The DREF operation will end on 23 May 2015, and a final report will be made available on 23 August 2015 (Three months after the end of the operation). Moreover, a revision to the agreed budget is required, and an additional allocation of CHF 55,211 is requested (totalling CHF 295,157 for this DREF), to enable expansion of the DREF operation into five states (Benue, Gombe, Ebonyi, Ekiti and Niger), which have been identified as high risk.
The major donors and partners of the DREF include the Red Cross Societies and governments of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the USA, as well as DG ECHO, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) the Medtronic, Zurich and Coca Cola Foundations and other corporate and private donors. The IFRC, on behalf of the Nigeria Red Cross Society (NRCS) would like to extend many thanks to all partners for their generous contributions.
