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Nigeria: Nigeria crisis: IOM regional assessment findings and recommendations, 23 Jan – 06 Feb 2015

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Source: International Organization for Migration
Country: Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria

REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Over the course of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, North East (NE) Nigeria has witnessed an increase in violence conducted by the insurgency group Boko Haram (BH) also known as Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awatiwal-Jihad – JAS), leading to widespread displacement in the country with a spill-over effect to neighbouring Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. At the end of 2014, the estimated number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Nigeria’s NE stood at close to one million and over 200,000 were reported displaced in neighbouring countries at the time of IOM’s regional assessment mission.

Whereas BH has been active in Nigeria since 2009, the severity and impact of its attacks has been felt most severely during 2014. Originally using “hit-and-run” tactics focused primarily on government targets and banks, the group is now increasingly targeting the civilian population and taking control of territory purportedly with the aim of establishing a “caliphate”.

Meanwhile cross-border hit-and-run attacks into Cameroon have become more frequent, lately also expanded to Niger. In light of the tactics used by BH in Nigeria, ideological support for the aims of the insurgents has been dropping sharply, with a shift to paid and forced recruitment, including of children. BH operates in a region of Nigeria where the poverty rate is the highest and where central government has been less present in the past. Thus, disenfranchised youth might be more prone to recruitment by BH, a concern which is also shared by neighboring Cameroon and Niger. Already there are reports of BH members originating from neighboring countries. In addition, the crisis has caused severe disruption to traditional trade routes as well as agricultural and pastoralist activities.

Niger, Cameroon and Chad are now fighting BH along the border areas and even within Nigeria. Chad is the most militarily engaged among all neighbors. The African Union has recently approved the deployment of 8300 troops to increase military response capacity. The AU's deployment decision is based on a request to expand on an existing Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) made up of armed forces from Nigeria, Chad and Niger - originally conceived as a counter-smuggling initiative, with limited cross-border collaboration, then later extended to fight BH. In the aftermath of the Baga (Nigeria) attacks at the beginning of January 2015, MNJTF has been confirmed insufficient.

Within the Lake Chad region, there exist ethnic and family ties which transcend national boundaries. The ethnic groups living in NE Nigeria share the same roots with the residents of the Extreme North region of Cameroon, Lac region in Chad and Diffa region in Niger. Multiple and cross-border movements complicate the understanding of displacement patterns and people’s identity is not defined along national boundaries. The majority of the displaced population is seeking refuge in host communities, benefiting from prior links with them. Whilst host families have been very accommodating, their means to support IDPs are meager and reaching a point of exhaustion. There are insufficient programmes targeting the needs of IDPs outside camps and seeking to increase the resilience of host communities.

According to the latest Nigerian census (2006), roughly 1 million foreign migrants reside in Nigeria, 51.4% of whom are originating from ECOWAS countries. For those fleeing BH across the border, a lack of access to identity documents makes it difficult to discern who is a returnee, refugee, IDP, or stranded migrant / Third Country National (TCN).

There are only blurred scenarios on how the displacement situation will evolve further. Both the on-going military operations as well as the Nigerian presidential elections (initially scheduled for 14th February and now postponed to the end of March) will have an impact on possible scenarios. The presence of BH along the Cameroonian and Niger border currently acts as a buffer zone for cross-border displacement, with the Damaturu road in Nigeria remaining as the sole exit route to leave Borno state. Further encroachment on territory in Borno, including the 2 million city of Maiduguri, might hence prompt internal displacement towards Yobe rather than the neighbouring countries. However, military interventions might open up additional escape routes and could be a factor causing further displacement of civilians currently trapped in BH controlled areas.


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