FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Unfavourable weather conditions affect the 2012 long-rains season maize crop
Maize prices began to decline following the start of harvest
Food security situation generally improves, but concern remains in pastoral and marginal cropping areas
Below average maize production expected from the 2012 long-rains season
In major cropping areas of the Rift valley, Western and Nyanza provinces, harvesting of the 2012 long-rains cereal crops has just started and will continue until the first months of 2013. A below average crop is expected following late and erratic rains in Nyanza, parts of western and southern Rift Valley and parts of Central and Eastern provinces. The outbreak of the highly contagious Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) in some districts of southern Rift Valley and Nyanza provinces has affected about 60 000 hectares where production may drop by 60-80 percent.
In bimodal south-eastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, harvesting of the 2012 long-rains cereal crops is almost complete and production is estimated at below average levels as rains have been erratic and ended earlier than usual. Major soil moisture deficits were reported in Taita Taveta, Kitui, Mwingi, Meru and Makueni districts, where the rainy season has been extremely poor leading to a complete crop failure in some areas. A poor long-rains season has also characterized some northern and north-eastern pastoral areas including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, central Garissa and Tana River, where water resources have been only partially recharged, pasture conditions declined and livestock trekking distances increased. In other pastoral areas that received adequate rainfall, pasture availability is good and livestock productivity has significantly improved.
On the other hand, planting of the 2012 short-rains season crops has just started in eastern and coastal areas. Enhanced precipitations are forecast until the end of the year (especially in the eastern half of the country) which is expected to have a positive impact on crop yields and pasture conditions. However, concern over localized flooding is raised in some areas and may result in increased post-harvest losses and outbreak of water-borne diseases.
Overall, the 2012/13 cereal production, even assuming an above average output for short-rains crops to be harvested in March/April 2013, is forecast at 3 million tonnes, about 10 percent below last five years average. Cereal import requirements for 2012/13 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a high of 2.3 million tonnes (about 15 percent up on last year), including 1.2 million tonnes of maize, 600 000 tonnes of wheat and 400 000 tonnes of rice.
Maize prices decline in most markets, but generally remain high
Prices of maize peaked seasonally in June/July and began to decline following the start of the 2012 “long-rains” harvest. In main markets, maize prices in September were between 7 and 25 lower than the seasonal peak in June/July. Although maize prices remain particularly high across most pastoral areas, livestock-to-maize terms of trade are relatively favourable for pastoralists. Compared to a year earlier, current maize prices are still between 5 and 20 percent higher, due to the strong local demand coupled with the expectations of a below average seasonal production.
Overall food security improves but concerns remain in pastoral and marginal cropping areas
Currently the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is estimated at about 2.1 million, about 43 percent less than in August 2012, following the start of harvesting of 2012 long-rains crops and improved market supplies. Most food insecure areas are located in north-eastern and north-western pastoral districts and in south-east and coastal marginal cropping areas, including Wajir, Mandera, Moyale, Marsabit, Turkana, Mwingi and Tana River districts. Here, food security of most vulnerable households has been seriously affected by low cereal production, low milk productivity, high food prices as well as inter-communal conflicts between herders and farmers (in particular among about 13 000 displaced people in Tana River district). Food security conditions are expected to improve soon in northern pastoral areas as the short-rains season, starting in October, is expected to bring some relief to depleted grazing resources. Conversely, food security in south-eastern and costal lowlands is expected to deteriorate until March 2013 when the next harvest will take place.
As of end of September 2012, according to UNHCR and OCHA, about 473 000 refugees, mostly from Somalia, were hosted in Dadaab camps in Garissa district and access to basic necessities such as food, shelter, water and sanitation is often precarious due to the high concentration of people.
