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Malawi: Southern Africa Assumptions for Quarterly Food Security Analysis December 2014

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Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
Country: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe

ABOUT THIS REPORT

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET uses scenario development. Commonly used by planners and researchers to forecast likely events, this methodology takes a set of informed assumptions about the future and compares their possible effects. Scenario development cannot predict exact outcomes but it structures the analysis and helps minimize uncertainty. This report, developed by FEWS NET analysts based on current evidence, outlines assumptions at the regional level. Analysts also develop assumptions at the country level, which are specific to that country and likely to be more detailed. Together, the regional and national assumptions are the foundation for the integrated analysis reported in FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates. Learn more about FEWS NET and scenario development at www.fews.net.
FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for January to June 2015 are based on the following regional assumptions:

Start of season (SOS) / Agroclimatology

Since early November, parts of the region have experienced infrequent and below-average rainfall, leading to abnormal dryness in eastern and central Zambia, northern Mozambique, northern Malawi, and northeastern South Africa. This delayed and erratic onset of seasonal rainfall is likely to shorten the window of time needed for crops to grow and mature before the end of the season or before mid-season dry spells set-in, which can result in reduced crop yields. In addition, green and main harvests are expected to be slightly delayed.

Current forecasts now indicate a 50 to 60 percent chance of an El Niño event occurring during the current rainfall season. The El Niño phenomenon is usually associated with below-average rainfall (40 percent chance or more) in many southern parts of the region. While El Niño generally increases chances of below-average rainfall, affected areas vary with every El Niño occurrence.

Consistent with the El Niño probability forecast, national meteorological 2014/15 seasonal forecasts for many southern Africa countries, and the SADC regional forecast update, indicate a likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall in the southern and central parts of the region during the second half of the season (January to March). These forecasts are consistent with several international forecasts (Figure 2), and with the expected impact of the negative subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) currently observed. This is likely to result in an overall below-average seasonal performance in the affected parts of the region.

The national forecasts, as well as the SARCOF forecast indicate that January to March rainfall totals are expected to be near average in many of the central and northern parts of the region, including those that experienced a delayed start of season. If rainfall improves during the second half of the season, the cropping season will likely progress as normal and the impact on food security outcomes will be minimal. However poor rains during the January-March period, as predicted by several forecasts, will result in delayed and poor green harvest and will likely have adverse impact on household food security from January through March and during the 2015/16 consumption period.

The January to March forecast for normal to above-normal rains in some areas may increase chances of flooding in several areas in the region, including parts of southern Malawi, central Mozambique, western Zambia, and northern Zimbabwe.


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