Food security improves with average to above-average harvests
Key Messages
Overall cereal production is expected to be average to above average, ensuring average levels of food availability for much of the country. However, localized production deficits due to insufficient rainfall will cause households in the departments of Gao, Bourem, Goundam, and Niafunké and some areas in the northern parts of Koulikoro and Kayes and the Douentza department to deplete their food stocks earlier than usual.
The availability of newly harvested crops and the drop in prices that typically results will improve household food access from October through March. Crop sales, market gardening activities, and 20 percent above-average livestock prices will result in average to above-average income levels, at least until March.
With the ready availability of food from the October harvest and average to slightly above-average cereal prices, poor households in agropastoral and pastoral zones will have average access to foodstuffs and be able to meet their food needs. The country could therefore continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity conditions from October through March.
However, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in April in rice-producing riverine areas of the Gao and Bourem departments, the lake region of the Goundam department, and the Haoussa area of Niafunké due to decreased crop production following insufficient rainfall during the rainy season.
