Areas of Crisis expected in parts of Haiti and Guatemala
Key Messages
In Central America, an average to slightly below-average Postrera harvest is expected. Poor households will have higher income as compared to last year due to an improved coffee harvest from October to February. Food security is expected to improve in the majority of the region through March 2015. However, parts of the western highlands and eastern dry corridor of Guatemala, southern Honduras, and Nicaragua will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in parts of the western highlands of Guatemala.
In Haiti, below-average rainfall since May has affected the spring and fall agricultural seasons, suggesting that 2014/15 crop production is likely to be significantly below-average. This will cause households to depend more than normal on market purchases in the coming months. Early exhaustion of food stocks and below-average agricultural labor income will cause a deterioration in food security. Parts of South, South-East, and Nippes departments are likely to enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by March 2015.
In the temperate highlands of Guatemala, losses to staple harvests during the single 2014 cropping season were above 70 percent in some areas, due to the prolonged dry spell. Although income will increase with the beginning of the coffee harvest in October, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through December. The exhaustion of reserves and a reduction in income will lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from January to March 2015.
An average Postrera harvest is expected in eastern Guatemala, which will improve food availability. Improved coffee sector-related income and food assistance will help poor households remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity until December. In the absence of further humanitarian assistance, poor households will become Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to March, due to the end of the coffee harvest and early exhaustion of maize reserves after 2014 Primera season losses.
In southern Honduras, recurring impacts on staple crops including losses during the 2014 Primera season, increased food prices, and limited employment in the coffee sector will lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from October 2014 through March 2015.
In Nicaragua, poor households located in livelihood zone 3 (Northwest Subsistence Agriculture, Livestock and Alternative Livelihoods) are expected to receive humanitarian assistance from October through December and will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity. Due to production losses, increased prices, and limited employment opportunities, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to March.
