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Mali: 2014-2015 Agricultural and food prospects in the Sahel and West Africa

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Source: Famine Early Warning System Network, World Food Programme, Food and Agriculture Organization
Country: Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal
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An agropastoral season with heterogeneous crop growth stages, requires close monitoring

From 8 to 10 September 2014, was held in Banjul, The Gambia, the regional consultation on the mid- term assessment of the agropastoral season and the 2014-2015 agricultural and food prospects. This meeting comes within the framework of the operation of the Regional Device for Prevention and Management of Food Crises (PREGEC) in the Sahel and West Africa. At the end of the meeting, participants made the following observations:

In preparation of the agro-pastoral season, countries have made significant investments through the establishment of inputs (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides) and agricultural materials to improve production.
In general, the rains in June and July were unequally distributed in time and within the region with long dry sequences. They were early in the Sudan area and late in the northern and western area of Sahel. The significant rainfall observed from the Last ten days of July, intensified in August causing floods followed by damage in some areas, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Niger. Seasonal total rainfalls are inferior or equivalent to those of 2013 and globally inferior to the normal (inter-annual average 1981 to2010). However, quantities of above-normal rainfall were recorded in the southern Gulf of Guinea and in parts of the Sahel (western Burkina Faso, southwestern Mali, West and south- central Niger and Sudanese region of Chad). Hydro logically, major rivers had low flows at the beginning of the rainy season and a slow evolution given the observed rainfall conditions. From July 2014, they reached levels close to the ten year average, but still lower than those of 2013.The filling level of dams and other surface water points is developing favorably since August. Continued rainfall until mid-October could mean good availability of water for counter season. Agricultural production On crop conditions, delays and replanting were recorded in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and Chad. The resumption of rains from the last ten days of July has favoured the development of crops in satisfactory water conditions. Continued rains in September and October could provide residual moisture allowing rain fed crops full maturity, but with lower returns than normal in the Sahel. At the end of August, the phonological stages of crops are very heterogeneous and range from emergence to maturity according to countries and communities due to poor spatial and temporal distribution of rains. However, crops are being harvested in some Sudanese and Gulf of Guinea areas.
As for phytosanitary aspects, the situation remains calm throughout the countries, despite the usual threats of pests (grasshoppers, eating birds, caterpillars ...) and damage caused by pets and wildlife. As for locusts vigilance has been increased by the national systems and the regional watch out established.

Consequently, expected agricultural productions (cereals and vegetables) could be average in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Chad. They would be inferior to the the five year average in the Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Senegal. As for roots and tubers, their production would be fair to good in the Gulf of Guinea.

The pastoral situation was marked by a long lean period due to lack of pasture in June and early July. it gradually improved as the rains set. Biomass production is generally satisfactory except in Gambia, Mauritania, and Senegal, in places in Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. Water points are fairly well filled thereby facilitating watering the herds. The animal health situation is satisfactory, except for some cases of endemic center of pseudo-hydro-telluric diseases recorded and mastered through the efforts of veterinary services in all the countries. Movements of herds are normal throughout the region except in the north Mali, eastern Niger, northern Nigeria and Chad.

The markets have currently a high level of supply in the key basins even if the rate and volume of the flow are weak in places .Prices decreased compared to July 2013 and had relative stability compared to the 5 year average in all basins of the region, except for Mauritania, northern Mali, northern Nigeria, north eastern Senegal and Southern Chad because of supply disruptions in cereals. The residual cereals stocks in Benin, Mali and Burkina Faso, the global offer of corn and wheat, could play a regulatory role in grain prices in the region. Livestock prices are generally favorable to farmers except in northern Chad and northern Mali where some rural markets are malfunctioning due to insecurity. However concerns remain about the functioning of markets and cross-border flows along borders of the countries affected by the Ebola virus epidemic.

Food situation is gradually improving due to the combined effects of price stability and various humanitarian assistance provided by the States and their partners for the populations in food insecurity. Harvest prospects would strengthen food availability in the region in the short term except in certain areas.

At the end of the workshop, the participants in the regional consultations on agricultural and food prospects in the Sahel and West Africa made the following recommendations:

To the countries:
1 Strengthen the close monitoring of the agricultural year with greater involvement of technical and financial partners and organizations of producers;
2 Arrange to finalize agricultural surveys and make available production estimates by November 2014;
3 Prepare the analysis of the Harmonized Framework cycles by collecting in time data;
4 Strengthening the watch out of the regional market and cross-border flows.

To CILSS, WAEMU, ECOWAS and partners:
1 Take necessary provisions to have information on the evolution of the agricultural season, the food and nutrition situation in countries affected by the Ebola virus epidemic;
2 To assess the impact of the epidemic Ebola on the food situation, nutrition, operation of the regional market and cross-border flows during joint monitoring missions of the agro pastoral season ;
3 Strengthen humanitarian assistance in countries affected by the Ebola epidemic.

Done in Banjul, Gambia, 10 September .2014 Participants


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