Millions at risk due to high prices and inadequate humanitarian response funding
KEY MESSAGES
A poor main harvest, sharply reduced labor incomes, and increasing staple food prices are putting an estimated 1.97 million people in Southern Malawi at risk of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity during this outlook period.
Humanitarian assistance is currently reaching approximately 700,000 people in nine districts in southern Malawi—less than half of those previously projected to be at risk of food insecurity. Assistance is planned for the remaining 900,000 by the peak of the lean season (January-March). Households in the south are currently at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels with assistance and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels in the absence of assistance.
Recently, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) increased its estimate of the food insecure population by 21 percent (to 1.97 million people). Even with this information, future humanitarian assistance plans remain unclear due to projected funding shortfalls. If the response is discontinued or delayed during the peak of the lean season (January-March), FEWS NET projects that poor households in the south will move into Crisis and Emergency levels of food insecurity.
Although a normal start of the season is expected in November, with normal to above-normal rainfall in the southern region between October and December, chances for normal to belownormal rainfall levels are high between January and March 2013. If these forecasts are realized, it is likely that the same areas in the south that experienced prolonged dry spells during the 2011/12 season may be impacted again during the upcoming season.
In the Middle Shire and Phalombe-Lake Chilwa livelihood zones, food insecurity during the January-March 2013 period is expected to be highly dependent on the success of 90-day maize crops made possible by the input subsidy program. If program implementation is limited, or if these crops do poorly, Emergency-level food insecurity is likely in these areas.