- Some increase in rainfall expected across West Africa during the next outlook period.
- Many areas of Sudan have reported flooding, house damages, and displaced people due to continued heavy rains.
1) Since early June, seasonal rainfall has been both suppressed and infrequent across northeastern Nigeria leading to a strengthening of moisture deficits. While there is a chance for some relief with increased rainfall forecast during the upcoming outlook period, anomalously dry ground conditions are expected to persist, which still may negatively impact developing crops later into the season.
2) Although much of western Ethiopia has experienced favorable amounts of rainfall during the last two months and recent rains have improved in quantity in eastern Ethiopia, poorly distributed rains in parts of eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and northern Oromia have been consistently below-average since June.
3) A continued sluggish start to seasonal rainfall across much of Senegal has led to deteriorating ground conditions and growing early season rainfall deficits dating back to June. With little rain forecast for the upcoming period, rainfall deficits are expected to grow, potentially impacting cropping activities.
4) A delayed start of the seasonal rains has negatively impacted cropping activities along the Mauritania-Mali border. Light to moderate rains are forecast in southern Mauritania next week, which could maintain moisture deficits over local areas.
5) Heavy rains during the past few weeks have destroyed shelters, flooded producing areas, and affected several people over many parts of the Darfur and Kordofan areas of Sudan. With moderate to heavy rains forecast to continue next week, additional flooding is likely.
6) Heavy rains during the past two weeks have resulted in flooding and displaced people across the Unity state of South Sudan. Forecasts call for moderate rains, which can exacerbate conditions on the ground.
7) Heavy downpours during the past two weeks caused flooding, infrastructure damages, injuries, and displaced people across the Khartoum, River Nile, and Al Gazeira states. Potential for flooding remains high as heavy rains are forecast to continue over upstream Ethiopian highland
