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Malawi: Malawi Food Security Outlook - July 2014 to December 2014

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Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
Country: Malawi
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Above-average national cereal production levels, but localized food insecurity persistent in Central Karonga and Middle Shire livelihood zones

Key Messages

  • Estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development indicate that 2013/14 maize production is approximately 9 percent higher than the previous season and 12 percent higher than the five-year average. Overall, a 1.5 million MT surplus in maize is expected with some increases ranging from 7 to 10 percent among other food crop production.

    • The average national maize price decreased in June, according to seasonal trends, but continues to be 60 percent above the five-year average. Prices are expected to rise over between July and December, but they will be lower than those recorded during the same period last year.

    • Extended periods of dryness, poor rainfall distribution, and an early cessation of rainfall affected localized production in parts of the Middle Shire and Central Karonga livelihood zone. Currently poor households in Karonga, Balaka, Neno, and Mwanza district are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between August and December.

National Overview

CURRENT SITUATION

  • Currently, most areas in Malawi are generally experiencing favorable food security conditions and nearly all but a few districts are reporting that approximately 1 percent of households do not have staple food from their own production . As of late June and early July, only localized areas in Central Karonga and parts of the Middle Shire (a chronically food insecure area) were reporting constrained food access among poor households due to production shortfalls in food and cash crops because of seasonal dry spells and early cessation of rains.

  • The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development (MoAIWD) is estimating a maize staple production of 3.9 million metric ton according to the second round report, representing a 9 percent production increase in comparison to the 2012/13 season. This estimated production level will leave the country with a maize surplus of about 1.5 million MT. Estimates of other food crops are also reported to be 4-10 percent higher than the previous season.

  • Between May and June, average national maize prices decreased by roughly 9 percent. Key drivers for the decrease in prices are primarily the increased availability of diverse foods from this season’s harvests, lower household demand as most households consume food from their own production, and traders have released maize stockpiled from last season.

  • Despite increased national production levels and an estimated surplus, informal cross border trade maize imports in June have almost doubled since May. This increase is a result of more robust imports at Muloza (bordering Mozambique) that is being driven by lower prices on the Mozambique side. On average, maize from Mozambique is being purchased for about MWK 64/kg in comparison to MWK 71/kg on the Malawi side. Informal exports in June have remained low (415 MT) as compared to exports in May (432 MT). Almost all informal exports were recorded at the Songwe and Mbirima border points into Tanzania.

  • The grain marketing board, ADMARC, and the National Food Reserve Agency have not yet started to purchase maize this season. Currently, no planned procurement of maize has been announced and the situation with the suspension of donor assistance and the financial constraints in government does not appear to be improving. This is disconcerting since by the end of the 2013/14 consumption year stocks in the strategic grain reserve were very low.

  • The annual food security assessment by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) was conducted in July, but the results are not yet released. This assessment will determine the number of people likely to face acute food insecurity during the 2014/15 consumption year and the level of humanitarian assistance that may be necessary to fill any food or livelihood protection deficits.


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