Maize grain prices rise as regional supplies tighten
Key messages
Regional food security is stable and there is mostly Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity conditions in most parts of southern Africa following main season harvests. There are pockets of acute food insecurity in parts of Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe due to reduced harvests in some areas affected by drought or floods and above-average cereal prices. Areas of concern are currently experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity.
Projected demand for South African maize is expected to exert pressure on the country’s maize supply this year. From June until mid August SAFEX prices for maize rose sharply in response to U.S. maize price increases due to deteriorating weather conditions. More recently prices have declined and stabilized, though at higher levels and still in response to world market prices which have also stabilized. However, there is the possibility that maize prices could still increase in the coming months as local supplies begin to dwindle.
The climate outlook for the 2012/13 rainfall season issued by the Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-16) predicts that most parts of the region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some localized areas in South Africa, southern Mozambique, southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland which experienced dryness during the 2011/12 season are likely to experience normal to below-normal rainfall in 2012/13 season.
