Delayed rainfall likely to result in poor harvest in the south of Malawi
Key Messages
The start of the agriculture season was delayed across parts of the central region and most of the south by 20-30 days. This will result in a delayed start of green consumption and this will lengthen the amount of time poor rural households will have to manage without access to food supplies from their main harvest.
Crops in the south that were planted late due to the delayed rains could face severe moisture stress if a mid-season dry spell (around February) occurs. This dry spell could moderately-to-severely affect late planted crops, potentially impacting yield and production levels in the 2013/14 season.
The humanitarian response plan for 2 million people is adequately funded and should improve acute food insecurity levels to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in areas of concern in the north, central, and southern regions. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected from April to June, once household access to food increases with the new harvest.
During the first quarter of the outlook period maize prices likely to remain above last year’s levels and the five year average due to reduced local supplies in the lean period, high source market prices and increasing transportation costs.
