In general, harvests across the region will be average to good. With these ongoing harvests, most households have an adequate diet and are able to meet their nonfood needs with income from the sale of cash crops and wage labor.
Most areas of the region are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.
However, there are localized pockets of severe production shortfalls in the Sahel due to the individual or combined effects of a late start of the rains, mid-season dry spells, and an earlier than usual end to the rainy season.
Household food stocks in deficit areas of Niger and Chad will depleted earlier than usual and widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes are likely by January 2014.
Northern and central regions of the Central African Republic are reeling from the combined effects of the politico-military crisis and disruptions to the growing season. This will limit food availability and make it difficult for very poor and poor households to maintain their food access. Thus, households in these areas will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes through at least March 2014.
In Mali, trade flows to northern markets of cereals from southern Mali and of imported foodstuffs from Algeria should be regular and at above-average levels. These flows will be sufficient to cover expected production shortfalls in the Gao and Timbuktu regions. In addition, improving incomes from livestock sales and continuing humanitarian assistance programs should help maintain food insecurity at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels between now and March 2014.