Near-average conditions, with certain areas requiring continued monitoring
KEY MESSAGES
Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is expected in most of the country with this year’s generally average harvests and pastoral conditions, regular, adequate market supplies, effective assistance programs strengthening food access, and favorable terms of trade. However, certain areas will require continued monitoring.
The erratic rainfall and resulting poor crop growth and development of rainfed crops in western agropastoral areas created large shortfalls in rainfed cereal production and the incomes of poor households from farm labor. Thus, as of the end of November, this group of households will be facing Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) until the harvest of flood-recession crops in February.
As of January, the large shortfall in rainfed cereal production in northwestern rainfed farming areas (in central and northern Guidimakha and eastern Gorgol), the sole source of annual on farm production by poor households, will create Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) for this group of households, which will be eased only by remittances of seasonal migration income beginning in March.