FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for the Sahel and West Africa for October 2013 to March 2014 are based on the following regional assumptions developed at the beginning of October 2013:
SEASONAL PERFORMANCE
End-of-season/Agro-climatic conditions
The Intertropical Front (ITF) has been retreating southwards, towards the Equator, since September in line with normal seasonal trends (Figure 1). Based on its mean position during the last dekad of September, all end-of-season forecasts are predicting the following:
In the Sahelian zone, the rainy season generally finished up at the end of September, although sporadic storms may allow crops in localized areas to finish maturing. In many areas within the zone, planting delays were observed earlier in the season and as a result, crops are at unusually early stages of development. This could lead to localized declines in crop yields compared to average, particularly in the far northern reaches of Burkina Faso, Niger (localized areas of the Diffa, Tillaberi, and Tahoua regions), northeastern and west-central Nigeria, Mali (localized areas in central Mali and in western Kayes), Chad (the Sahel and western Chari Baguirmi), south-central Mauritania, and north-central Senegal and Gambia.
In the Sudano-Guinean zone and bimodal areas, the rainy season will continue into November (for the Sudano-Guinean zone) and into December (for bimodal areas), with a normal increase in storm activity during the month of October as the ITF retreats southwards. This will allow standing crops in the Sudano-Guinean zone to finish maturing normally and will help get the second growing season (October to December) in bimodal areas off to a good start.