Early harvests mark the end of the lean season in agropastoral areas
With the exception of a few isolated incidents, the securitization of northern Mali has allowed for the reestablishment of near-normal movements of people and goods. IDPs and refugees are actively returning to their homes with the help of the government and the humanitarian community in the form of transportation services, as well as food and nonfood assistance.
Harvests are expected to be average, which should ensure adequate staple food supplies on both northern and southern markets. In addition to good market supplies in northern areas, harvests of wild fonio and certain early-maturing crops are bolstering household food availability.
Cereal market prices are seasonally declining due to ongoing harvests and are expected to continue to fall through December/January. Good livestock prices are also strengthening incomes for pastoral households who are taking advantage of good terms of trade to rebuild their cereal stocks.
The availability of early crops in millet-producing areas and the improvement in terms of trade for pastoralists by more than 30 percent are helping to ease Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions that have been observed in northern areas since July. In addition to the availability of fresh millet crops in October, rice harvests between November and January will enable households to meet their food needs. The combination of these factors, plus continuing humanitarian food assistance through December and the arrival of crops from southern surplus-production areas that are selling at near-average prices, will cause households to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity throughout the outlook period.