The food security situation in the eastern part of the country remains stressed
KEY MESSAGES
Overall Meher production is expected to be near average, particularly in the western, surplus-producing areas. However, in some parts of the eastern, marginal, Meher-producing areas and in the Belg-dependent and sweet potato-producing areas in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), the harvest is expected to be below average due to soil moisture deficits, hailstorms, and flash flooding during the June to September Kiremt rainy season.
The timely onset of Deyr/Hagaya rains in southern and southeastern parts of the country has helped improve livestock body conditions and productivity. The short season rains are likely to continue in these areas. However, areas at risk of resource-based conflict and at risk of flooding along the Shebelle river in Afder, Liben, and Shabelle (formerly Gode) Zones in Somali Region are expected to face increasing food insecurity.
The price of grain from October to December is expected to show some seasonal decline but remain at its elevated level. From January to March, significant increases in grain prices are expected, which will significantly reduce the purchasing power of the market-dependent poor and the very poor.
Although Meher production is expected to improve overall food availability , market access to food by poor and very poor households in the eastern, marginal, Meher-producing areas, in Belg-dependent and sweet potato-producing areas of SNNPR, and in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Afar, Borena Zone in Oromia, and Somali Regions will be limited. Food insecurity in these areas is likely to be higher from January to March and require humanitarian interventions.