Lean season prices well above the seasonal average
KEY MESSAGES
As predicted by weather forecasts, moderate to heavy rainfall in late June/early July spurred the 2013/14 growing season, allowing 86 percent of farming villages to complete planting, compared to an average planting rate of 90 percent during this period. However, the late onset of the rainy season in some parts of Zinder, Tahoua, and Diffa regions could result in localized start of season delays.
A study of price trends for locally grown cereal crops (millet and sorghum) shows normal seasonal price increases at moderately above rates compared to the seasonal average due to unusual shifts in trade patterns. These increases are translating into unusual five to ten percent monthly price hikes, which are likely to continue in areas along the Nigerian border, where prices will peak sometime in August.
Expert assessments by the National Food Crisis and Disaster Management system put the size of the country’s foodinsecure population at 1,123,618 as of May/June of this year, including refugees. This estimate is 56 percent below the five-year average.
Normal agropastoral seasonal progress will stabilize seasonal income which, combined with additional food supplies and cash from assistance programs between July and September, will temper the effects of high prices on poor households in most parts of the country, translating into Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). However, poor households in Diffa and Nguigmi will continue to face IPC Phase 2: Stressed food insecurity between July and September after a difficult lean season with exceptionally high staple food prices. Crop consumption from upcoming harvests between October and December and various cash and in-kind payments will significantly improve food access, producing Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) throughout the country as of October.