Rainfall deficit in the south affects cropping activities in production zones
KEY MESSAGES
In spite of the slight lag in seasonal progress following rainfall deficits in crop-producing areas, forecasts for the 2013/2014 crop year are still predicting average cereal and cotton harvests. Seed assistance furnished by the government and its partners and the high likelihood of continuing rainfall into October according to current weather forecasts are supporting harvest prospects.
Security conditions are improving in the Timbuktu and Gao regions, though reports of localized disturbances in Kidal continue. Overall, the re-establishment of stability is encouraging IDPs and refugees to return to their homes with the resumption of economic activity and the delivery of humanitarian assistance programs. As of late June, 14,015 IDPs and refugees had returned to Gao (Agency for Social Development).
Market supply is adequate and cereal prices are generally down from last year despite the tightening of supplies with the late start of the rains in crop-producing areas, which made farmers reluctant to unload their crops. As a result, prices have edged upwards by approximately five percent for the first time since January. Millet prices are still five to 20 percent above-average and, thus, unaffordable for most poor pastoralists in the north.
IPC Phase 3 Crisis food insecurity outcomes observed in northern pastoral areas and IPC Phase 2 Stress among agropastoral households improved in July following the scale-up of large-scale humanitarian assistance programs underway since March. However, declining seasonal income and slow economic recovery continue to limit the purchasing power of poor pastoral households emerging from the lean season and among agropastoral households for whom the lean season is just beginning. These populations will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September, when the availability of wild plant foods, milk, and early crops should help reduce food insecurity to Minimal levels (IPC Phase 1) between October and December.