Food and nutrition security expected to improve through March 2013
KEY MESSAGES
The population in need of humanitarian assistance declined from 2.2 million in February 2012 to 2.1 million in September 2012. The decline was higher in pastoral areas than in marginal agricultural livelihood zones. The majority of the food insecure households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while about 10 percent of the food insecure population is categorized as in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Total maize output from the long rains is likely to be below average, but the below-average harvest will minimally affect food security.
The October to December 2012 short rains are expected to be average to above average and result in an above average harvest in February, concentrated in the Southeast and coastal areas.Considerable improvement in food security is expected through March 2013. Of those currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the pastoral zone and the southeastern marginal agricultural areas, the food security situation is set to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) by December, driven by increases in crop production and livestock productivity resulting from the near average to above average October to December 2012 short rains.
Expected improvement in food security in southeastern marginal agricultural and coastal lowlands could slightly be undermined by the persistence of well above average maize prices, destruction of roads by floods, political activities that could motivate conflict and cause displacements and market disruptions, or widespread water- and vector-borne diseases.
Widespread maize lethal necrosis disease (MLND) in cropping areas could also lead to an extreme deterioration of food security
