• The global cereal price index increased by 9% on a year-on-year basis in the April-June 2013 quarter, mostly driven by nominal price rises of maize and wheat (+7% and +17%, respectively).
• However, on a quarterly basis (Q2 vs. Q1 2013), real global maize, wheat and rice prices2 fell by 5%, 1%, and 2%, respectively. The marked price drop for maize is driven by the improved global stock-to-use ratio of maize (+12% y/y).
• Yet maize prices are still 3% higher, while wheat and rice prices are 30% and 46% lower than during their respective peak period in 2008.
• Price trends for most domestic markets are similar to the global trend. The impact of domestic price changes on the food basket cost in the last quarter was low or moderate (<5%) in 66 out of 70 monitored countries. Only four countries experienced high (5-10%) or severe (above 10%) price impacts, namely Bangladesh, the Kyrgyz Republic, Zambia (all high) and Bolivia (severe). The highest effects are driven by prices of maize in Zambia (+7%) and Bolivia (+6%), as well as rice in Bangladesh and Bolivia (both +6%).
• Egypt’s volatile socio-political situation has been accompanied by macro-economic instability, rising unemployment and poverty, and worsening food security for many vulnerable households.
• Several macro-economic factors are maintaining pressure on food and non-food prices in Pakistan.
Food inflation in particular contributes to recent food insecurity.