Crop and livestock prospects shaping up well
Due to favorable agro-climatic conditions, millet, sorghum, cowpea, and groundnut crops are in good condition. Preliminary crop estimates by the Office of Statistics indicate about 5 million MTs, including production levels that exceeded expectations in the Diffa, Zinder, and Maradi regions. These estimates validate earlier forecasts that predicted good agricultural production this season.
In the Tillabéri, Dosso, and Tahoua regions, favorable rainfall since the beginning of August has significantly improved millet and sorghum development, and overall production may be average to good. The exceptions are localized areas where heavy rainfall on leached soils may result in reduced production levels, especially in Téra, Tillabéri, Dosso, and Tahoua. Poor households in these areas will not have sufficient cereals to meet their typical needs.
Heavy rains since August have resulted in the flooding of 10,000 hectares of rice in Tillabéri, Dosso, and Niamey. FUCOPRI (Fédération des Unions des Producteurs de Riz) estimates production losses at more than 27,200 MT, which is the equivalent of over 5 billion CFA francs. Most rice producers are wealthy or middle-income and will overcome the impact of these losses on food stocks. Poor households will mainly feel the effects of the losses as they will lose paid work opportunities that they heavily depend upon to enable cereal purchases until December.
Cereal prices began to stabilize in September but were almost imperceptible as price levels still remained above the seasonal average. The stable prices are due to declining demand at the end of Ramadan and the start of harvests in the major production areas. Prices should continue to decline gradually until December, though they will remain above the seasonal average.