- Introduction
Political stability is expected to improve significantly following the assumption of the presidency by the former vice president, Joyce Banda, after the previous president, Bingu wa Mutharika, died of a heart attack in April. Under Mr Mutharika the regime's credibility and urban popularity had plummeted because of worsening fuel and electricity shortages, rising unemployment and a clampdown on political freedoms. Ms Banda has moved swiftly to reverse previous policies, re-establish relations with international donors and replace several of Mr Mutharika's key allies. Political freedoms are expected to increase and Ms Banda appears intent on rebuilding popular trust in state institutions. Owing partly to her reforms and personal popularity and partly to the benefits that come with access to power, Ms Banda has for now secured a workable majority in parliament for her People's Party (PP), which includes former members of Mr Mutharika's party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Nevertheless, Ms Banda will face significant challenges.
The biggest challenge and most likely source of popular discontent will be the economic hardships that the general population will experience as Ms Banda seeks to reform the economy. Inflation is expected to remain high in 2013 on the back of the currency devaluation, adoption of a free floating exchange rate and the withdrawal of fuel and electricity subsidies. A sharp rise in aid inflows, an expected large pay increase for civil servants and the boosted incomes for farmers of Malawi's main export commodity, tobacco, will cushion the blow. So too will the expected expansion of the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP), which was one of the cornerstones of the DPP's rural support. However most people will be hit, particularly urban dwellers and small-scale traders, as there will be a time lag between the economic reforms and increasing non-agricultural economic activity and employment opportunities. If the promises of economic growth and higher living standards look increasingly distant, labour strikes and popular protests against the high cost of living could erupt and force the government to dilute its hard-won reform momentum.
The Malawi Growth and Development Strategy II 2011 to 2016 (MGDS II), recognizes the Government’s commitment to several global agreements and declarations including the MDGs, and the Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development. The GoM through the MGDS II is committed to the MDGs as internationally agreed targets for eradicating extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowering women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability; and developing a global partnership for development. The country has made progress on all its targets and is on track to attain five of the eight MDG targets by the year 2015.
Although progress has been made in all the goals, Malawi is still lagging behind in achieving targets in three goals, namely: maternal health; universal primary education; and gender equality and women’s empowerment.