Minimal food insecurity in most rural areas
Though poor households in most parts of the country have depleted their household cereal stocks, smooth trade flows (domestic, cross-border, and imports) should ensure good nationwide and region-wide food availability, at least through the end of June. Thus, there should not be any visible deterioration in household food security between April and June (Figures 1 and 2).
Good pastoral conditions, favorable terms of trade for livestock/cereal, and access to expected average levels of income from farm labor as of June will keep food insecurity at IPC Phase 1 Minimal for most poor households through the end of September (Figure 3).
However, poor households in southeastern rainfed agriculture zone (Bassikounou department) and, to a lesser extent, in northwestern agro-dominant agropastoral zone (Aleg department) and northern areas suffering from a protracted drought since last year will remain in IPC Phase 2 Stress between April and June.
Growing security problems in northwestern Mali, unleashing a new wave of refugees and limiting the usual flow of food and income to poor Mauritanian households from short-term seasonal labor migration, is creating IPC Phase 2 Stress levels of food insecurity for local and refugee households alike, currently maintained by humanitarian assistance. Any disruption in these assistance programs could weaken conditions between April and June, further heightening food insecurity levels.