GCSP Policy Paper 2013/4
Key Points:
•In Mali, insecurity is likely to play out well into the foreseeable future. Political solutions cannot be expected until an elected government takes over in Bamako. Even then, successful negotiations regarding the status of Northern Mali will prove to be particularly problematic.
•Mali is in need of a full-fledged national dialogue and a type of truth and reconciliation commission in order to move past the crimes committed during the occupation and the recapture of the North.
•Although militant groups have suffered severe losses, they could still carry out lastingly many of the activities in the textbook of asymmetrical warfare.
•The discussion of whether Françafrique is back or not does not have an impact on the situation in Mali. French troops are in Mali. France is committed to contribute and will play a military role in the future, whether it is within the United Nations-mandated, African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA) or, more likely, with a rapid reaction force designated for Mali.
•A regional organisation should take the lead in dealing with cross-border issues, be it transnational crime or Islamist militancy. While ECOWAS is usually regarded as the relevant one for Mali, in terms of member states, the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (Cen-Sad) seems much more suitable to deal with crossborder challenges.
•International crisis management will be pursued according to the experience and political will of involved organisations on a modular basis. There will be a hybrid mission (UN together with regional organisation), a training mission provided by the European Union and a regional organisation taking care of the political processes.