As high maize prices persist, late season dry spells are likely to reduce crop yields in some districts
KEY MESSAGES
• Second round crop estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) have projected gross maize production at about 3.68 million MTs. While this estimate is slightly higher (1.5 percent) than 2011/12 production levels, FEWS NET expects that the third round crop estimates will better capture the impact of the extended dry spells on crop yields in the central and northern region, and maize production estimates will likely decrease.
• Due to prolonged dry spells in February and March, reduced maize crop yields are expected this season for poor rural households in parts of Southern Lake Shore (SLA), Kasungu-Lilongwe Plains (KAS), Mzimba Selfsufficient (MZS), and Western Rumphi-Mzimba (WRM) livelihood zones. From July to September affected households will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as their own food stocks become depleted and households must buy high priced food in local markets.
• In March, the average national retail price for maize was 253 percent higher than the average retail price in March 2012 due to continued tight supplies and high demand, exacerbated by the loss of 32,222 MTs of national maize stocks, the continued depreciation of the Malawian Kwacha (MWK), the longer distances traveled to source markets, and high fuel costs. Given these factors FEWS NET projects that between April and June maize prices will decrease according to seasonal trends, but will remain higher than average historical maize prices throughout the outlook period.