KEY MESSAGES
• There is Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity across most of the region, except for pockets of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in areas affected by flooding, market disruptions, weak purchasing power, and poor agropastoral performance. In the hardest hit conflict affected areas of northern Mali and northeastern Nigeria, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is expected in the upcoming months.
• In areas of Niger, northern Nigeria, and northern Mali, poor access to food due to rising food prices could cause nutritional indicators to decline well before the start of the lean season (mid-June to mid-September).
• Staple food crop losses (primarily to tubers) in Nigeria could cause a consumer substitution effect which, in turn, could tighten the supply of cereals across the region. Close monitoring ofseasonal trade flowsfrom of Nigeria is needed, particularly starting in March/April, to determine the magnitude of this effect on regional demand and prices.
