By SARA MOJTEHEDZADEH Special Correspondent
Posted Saturday, October 13 2012 at 19:09
IN SUMMARY
According to a recent study by Oxfam, many regions of Somalia are confronting severe food and water shortfalls as a result of poor rains.
According to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which assesses the risk of famine in Somalia, there has been a 17 per cent decline in the number of food insecure Somalis over the past six months.
As October dawned, Abdi Rashid Hiraat decided it was time. He packed his things and booked himself a one way ticket from Nairobi to Mogadishu. He was going home.
Hiraat is part of a growing number of Somali refugees buoyed by the setting up of a new government and the flight of Al Shabaab from their former stronghold Kismayu.
But as confidence marks a new era of political leadership in Somalia, experts are warning that over two million Somalis continue to survive on a knife edge.
According to a recent study by Oxfam, many regions of Somalia are confronting severe food and water shortfalls as a result of poor rains.
The survey of 1,800 households found that 72 per cent were worried about their food supply in coming months as a result of this year’s poor “Gu” rains — the season between April and June that supplies Somalia with the rainfall vital for its September harvest. Nearly half of those surveyed habitually skipped meals to make ends meet.
The research was released as Kenyan officials returned from a high level United Nations meeting in Geneva where they sought international support to repatriate Somali refugees.
In a recent interview, Kenya’s Commissioner for Refugee Affairs Badu Katelo revealed that the process could begin in as soon as five months if the situation in Somalia continued to stabilise.
“We would like [Somali refugees] to return as soon as the situation in Somalia allows for it,” said Mr Katelo.
Aid organisations were reluctant to comment on refugee repatriation given the sensitivities surrounding the current negotiations. But Oxfam’s research, its members argue, serves as a reminder of the fragility of Somalia’s progress.
Positive information
“There is a huge amount of positive information coming out of Mogadishu,” said Ed Pomfret, Oxfam’s Somalia campaign manager. “The situation is certainly a lot better, but in the rest of south-central Somalia it is still pretty severe.”
But Laura Hammond, a food security and Horn of Africa expert at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, called the study “alarming.”
She said the emerging crisis was the result of poor rains over the past three years and the country’s reliance on food imports.
“That Somalis are quite dependent on food imports — sugar, rice and pasta — has compounded the situation. The global prices of these commodities have been high over the past few years,” said Dr Hammond.
However, she said, continued violence in the country was hampering relief efforts.
“It is no wonder that the areas of greatest food insecurity in Somalia in recent years have coincided almost exactly with the areas of greatest conflict,” said Dr Hammond.
However, there is cause for hope: According to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which assesses the risk of famine in Somalia, there has been a 17 per cent decline in the number of food insecure Somalis over the past six months.
Since January 2012, there has also been a 27 per cent reduction in the number of malnourished children, and a 42 per cent decrease in those who are acutely malnourished.
Effect of further shocks
“Any further shocks without proper assistance could take Somalia back to previous conditions, but that’s very unlikely now due to weakening anti-government forces and as more and more areas come under the control of the current government,” said Tamara Nanitashvili, the acting head of FSNAU.
With some conditions on the upswing, particularly in Mogadishu, many refugees like Hiraat are anxious to return home.
But reintegrating its exiled population may be a difficult task for Somalia’s fledgling government. According to Dr Hammond, the new regime is not yet capable of helping the needy within its own borders.
“Probably the best it can do is help to provide security so that aid agencies can have access,” she told The EastAfrican.
“Many of those who have been displaced or who lost everything during the famine and conflict and want to return will need to be assisted to resume their farming or herding. Greater security can help tremendously to achieve these things,” she said.