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- 09/21/16--10:21: _Nigeria: UNHCR Fund...
- 09/21/16--10:24: _Mali: UNHCR - Mali ...
- 09/21/16--10:36: _Mali: UNHCR - West ...
- 09/21/16--10:52: _Nigeria: Classes to...
- 09/21/16--13:51: _Gambia: UNICEF Gamb...
- 09/21/16--14:05: _Niger: Rift Valley ...
- 09/21/16--21:02: _Cameroon: Living in...
- 09/21/16--22:07: _Mali: UN fears Mali...
- 09/21/16--22:34: _South Sudan: South ...
- 09/22/16--02:06: _Nigeria: Nigeria: E...
- 09/22/16--02:29: _Central African Rep...
- 09/22/16--03:23: _Cameroon: Cameroun:...
- 09/22/16--04:35: _Cameroon: Suicide a...
- 09/22/16--09:55: _Nigeria: Nigeria: H...
- 09/22/16--10:20: _South Sudan: Octobe...
- 09/22/16--10:26: _Chad: Resilience In...
- 09/22/16--13:40: _South Sudan: WFP So...
- 09/22/16--16:03: _Nigeria: Nigeria We...
- 09/22/16--17:58: _Nigeria: Hunger sta...
- 09/22/16--19:49: _Ethiopia: Ethiopia ...
- 09/21/16--10:24: Mali: UNHCR - Mali 2016 Funding Update as of 19 September 2016
- 09/21/16--10:52: Nigeria: Classes to resume in Chibok after Boko Haram shut-down
- Schools targeted -
Heavy rains, accompanied by windstorm, from August to date have caused significant destructions to public infrastructure and individual properties, resulting in the displacement of people, injuries and death.
So far, a total of 4,633 people from 418 households have been affected, with one death reported in North Bank Region. These numbers are inclined to increase as the rains have not yet ceased and more communities remain unassessed due to logistical constraints.
Of the affect population, the highest numbers are recorded in Central River (1,609) and West Coast (1,028) regions.
Humanitarian assistance is yet to reach the affected people who are challenged by lack of food, shelter and poor living conditions.
UNICEF has provided support to the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) to conduct a rapid needs assessment of the affected population in all the 7 administrative regions of the country, in conjunction with awareness raising activities on flood risk reduction.
- 09/21/16--14:05: Niger: Rift Valley Fever outbreak kills 21 in western Niger
- 09/21/16--22:07: Mali: UN fears Mali clashes could hurt peace process
- 09/21/16--22:34: South Sudan: South Sudan: Humanitarian situation & response
- 09/22/16--02:06: Nigeria: Nigeria: Emergency Dashboard, September 2016
- 09/22/16--04:35: Cameroon: Suicide attack kills 3 in Cameroon's Far North
Inflation: The South Sudan August 2016 inflation rate peaked to an all-time higher of 730 percent year-on-year, 70 points more than the 661 percent in July, due to an 850 percent rise in the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Exchange Rate: The South Sudan Pound hit a record low against the U.S. dollar in August 2016, exchanging at SSP 67/1$ in Juba down from SSP 65/US$ a month earlier. The SSP has lost further ground to the dollar in the first week of September exchanging at SSP 80/US$ in the black market in Juba.
Cost of Fuel and Local produced Grains and Imported Staples: Fuel shortages, high cost of transportation, dollar scarcity in addition to insecurity along most trade routes and seasonal rains continued to disrupt trade between states as well as importation of food through Juba-Nimule Road. As a result, cereal and imported food prices sustained rising trends in many areas. Exception was in parts of the Greater Equatoria where prices of locally produced food (cereals, beans and vegetables) stabilized slightly month-on-month due to first season harvests. However, food prices remained significantly elevated when compared to the same period last year and the five year average in all markets.
Outlook: Looking forward, hyperinflation phenomena will most likely extend into 2017 given the scale of the prevailing insecurity, geo-political and economic crises facing the country. The relative price stability in Equatoria will most likely be short-lived given the lower harvest prospects due to insecurity and recent fighting in Juba that disrupted the first season harvesting. The second season cropping in Equatoria, the main season, will most likely be disrupted if the current insecurity situation does not improve, signalling hard times ahead for farming households early next year. Elsewhere, food availability is expected to improve temporarily during the green and main harvests in September-October - November-December in parts of Warrap, Northern Bhar el Ghazal and Upper Nile. All other factors held constant, the green harvest starting this month in these areas is expected to increase flows of locally produced commodities into surrounding markets and will help moderate price increases. As per the May 2016 market assessment, markets should be able to adequately respond to increased demand and will likely support Cash Based Transfer Interventions.
Despite the relative calm that has been holding in Juba for sometimes now, the prospects of violence escalating further remains unpredictable but a return to large-scale fighting would be devastating to the economy and food security and nutrition situation.
In northeast Nigeria close to 1.9 million are displaced due to insurgency. The majority are IDPs, of which over 1.4 million are in Borno State. Children constitute 54 per cent of the displaced population, and nearly half are under five years of age.
In 2016, over 398,000 children are estimated to be suffering from severe acute malnutrition in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states.
UNICEF’s scale up response focuses on provision of integrated package of critical life-saving services in Borno, Yobe and newly liberated areas.
Over 2.6 million affected population have access to UNICEF supported preventive healthcare services and 87,923 severe acute malnourished children have been newly admitted into therapeutic feeding programmes.
With UNICEF support, 479,533 affected people have access to safe water. Psychosocial support has reached 134,184 children and 74,491 children are benefitting from education services through protective and safe learning environment.
UNICEF’s scale up plan has a funding gap of 75 per cent. This critical underfunding, especially in WASH, Health and Child Protection, has constrained the scale up of UNICEF’s integrated multi-sector humanitarian response.
Since 3 September, over 17 000 new South Sudanese refugees have arrived in the Gambella region in Ethiopia. Mostly originate from the Upper Nile State in South Sudan and are fleeing insecurity and food shortages.
New arrivals continue to be received at an average 1 000 people per day. As 22 September, over 5 000 people have been registered and over 1 500 unaccompanied and separated children have been identified.
Several humanitarian partners are already operational at the entry point of Pagak in Gambella region. The contingency plan has been reviewed upwards to cover the humanitarian needs of 50 000 people.
Meanwhile humanitarian partners are ensuring basic services at the entry point as well as in the camps. The urgent priority is the relocation of the new arrivals to existing refugee camps where provision of shelters and NFIs will be necessary.
107.2 M required for 2016
25.3 M contributions received, representing 24% of requirements
81.9 M funding gap for the Nigeria Situation
106.7 M required for 2016
33.3 M contributions received, representing 31% of requirements
73.4 M funding gap for the Mali Situation
274.0 M required for 2016
78.5 M contributions received, representing 29% of requirements
195.5 M funding gap for West Africa
Kano, Nigeria | AFP | Wednesday 9/21/2016 - 17:41 GMT
by Aminu ABUBAKAR
Students from a school in northeast Nigeria, from where more than 200 girls were kidnapped by Boko Haram, will resume lessons next month, more than two years after the mass abduction, the state government has announced.
Chibok became synonymous with the Boko Haram conflict when fighters abducted 276 girls from the Government Secondary School (GSS) on the evening of April 14, 2014, sparking global outrage.
A total of 218 are still being held.
But residents in the town hit out at the plan, calling it unworkable, as it involves sharing an already overstretched building.
Borno state commissioner for education Inuwa Kubo announced late on Tuesday that all public secondary schools would re-open on October 3 after being closed for more than two years.
"All the damages done to the schools' infrastructure have been repaired," he told reporters in the state capital, Maiduguri.
Some secondary schools in areas still deemed insecure because of militant and military activity will, however, be moved to safe areas, he added.
He said the remaining students of the GSS in Chibok would have to share a building with the local primary school, as the secondary school, which was razed during the attack, has not been rebuilt.
Yakubu Nkeki, from a support group for families of the kidnapped schoolgirls, said the plan was "not feasible".
"The (primary school) pupils use the classrooms between morning and noon while the (junior secondary school) students use them between noon and late afternoon," he told AFP.
"So, the structures are already overstretched."
Primary school in Nigeria typically caters for children aged six to 11, while junior secondary teaches 11 to 15 year olds.
Boko Haram, whose name in the Hausa language widely spoken across northern Nigeria means "Western education is sin", has specifically targeted schools teaching a "secular" curriculum.
In March this year, the Borno state government said the Islamists had destroyed or damaged 5,335 classrooms and school buildings in 512 primary, 38 secondary and two tertiary institutions.
All schools in Borno were shut after a Boko Haram attack in neighbouring Yobe state on February 25, 2014, when at least 43 students were killed at a boarding school in Buni Yadi.
The UN children's agency has said more than one million children have been kept out of school since the conflict began in 2009, exacerbating already low levels of education in the northeast.
Primary schools in the state were re-opened last year, said Kubo, but security remains an issue in Borno, despite military successes against the jihadists.
Nkeki said 57 primary and nine junior secondary schools in the Chibok area remained shut because of sporadic attacks.
Chibok elder Ayuba Alamson Chibok said the re-opening may even come too late for the kidnapped girls' classmates.
"Some of the girls have grown so big that they may hardly go back to school even if it reopens, as their parents may prefer them to get married once their right suitor comes," he said.
But he added: "It is a good development if the remaining girls can have the opportunity to resume school. Although two years have been wasted, it is better late than never."
Alamson Chibok said university graduates have volunteered to teach primary school pupils during the closure, while some parents have sent their children to schools elsewhere in Nigeria.
"We will be happy if the Borno state government can keep to its word of relocating the GSS students to another school while their school is being rebuilt," he added.
© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
Situation in Numbers
children affected out of
(NDMA, Sept 2016)
UNICEF Appeal 2016*
$2,146,400. The Gambia’s is a part of the 2016 Sahel Chapter.
Flood Response needs $275,000.
Allocation for 2016 was $343,174.29 in total, of which a balance of $149,000 remains.
Situation Overview and Humanitarian Needs
The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System forecasted a possible flooding in Upper River and Central River regions owing to an increase in the water level of the river. These regions are vulnerable due to high incidence of poverty and limited access to basic social services. The persistent heavy rains from August to date, coupled with strong winds, have caused displacement, injuries and death. As of 14th September 2016, the total population affected by floods and windstorms stands at 4,633 from 418 households, with one death reported in North Bank Region. Central River and West Coast regions were the worst affected areas. Class rooms in two schools within West Coast Region were destroyed, denying education to 1,850 children. In addition to that, available schools are being used for housing internally displaced families. This further denies children their right to access their schools.
Shelter and household food security are immediate priorities for the affected families, as some of them are sheltered in incomplete houses or at the nearest schools. Reduced access to safe water and submerged sanitation facilities continue to pose a major health risk in affected communities. The number of affected people will likely increase as more rains is forecasted up to the end of November.
With no specific treatment or effective human vaccine, Rift Valley fever can cause blindness and severe haemorrhaging, leading the victim to vomit blood or even bleed to death
By Kieran Guilbert
DAKAR, Sept 21 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Health workers in western Niger are racing to contain an outbreak of Rift Valley fever that has killed at least 21 people over the past month, an aid agency said on Wednesday.
Read the full story here
Maroua, Cameroon | AFP | Thursday 9/22/2016 - 03:34 GMT
by Reinnier Kaze
With his finger on the trigger, ready to fire his weapon in an instant, a policeman keeps an eye on people passing in the centre of Maroua, capital of Cameroon's Far North region that has been a target of Boko Haram Islamists.
It's been more than a year since a string of suicide bombings by the jihadists -- from their stronghold in nearby Borno state in northern Nigeria -- tore through a bustling central market and a bar last July, killing 33 people and wounding dozens more.
Security has been beefed up and there have been fewer attacks, but the people of Maroua still live in constant fear of another surprise explosion in their midst.
It was in the popular neighbourhood of "pont vert" (green bridge) that a young girl last July 25 blew herself up -- Boko Haram increasingly uses female suicide bombers.
In this busy marketplace where vendors sell the local beer "bil-bil", snacks and medicinal products, no one has forgotten that day.
"We fear more suicide attacks," says Boukar Isma, who sells medicines on the street.
He himself was hit by shrapnel during the attack.
"There is still metal in my body," he says.
Next to him an elderly man Siddi Founaboui lifts his shirt to show two scars from wounds on his stomach. "I can't stand up for long... Before, I did masonry work, but I can't do it any more."
On Mondays there's a livestock market in Maroua, and police from a special rapid reaction force are stationed at the two entrances to the marketplace.
"We are here to secure the area," says one of them asking not to be named.
"Move on," he says suddenly to a group of shepherds chatting near an entrance. "We watch to see that no crowds gather outside the market," he says.
Boko Haram, who want to establish a caliphate in northern Nigeria, have been waging an insurgency since 2009. Their battle has spilled across the borders of neighbouring countries which, including Cameroon, have formed a regional force to fight back.
One resident Kidmo Dobe sports a T-shirt which says: "Homage to the victims of the 'pont-vert' attack, 25 July 2015."
"It's important not to forget," he says. "The war is not over."
IHS Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC) says Boko Haram carried out 22 attacks into Cameroon, Chad and Niger in 2014 and 62 in 2015, when it aligned with the Islamic State group.
There were 41 cross-border attacks this year through the end of August. To combat the jihadists the Multi-National Joint Task Force of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Benin, has launched operations in the Lake Chad region.
- 'Not easy to forget' -
When night falls in Maroua, police tell the street vendors and shops to close. Even those who like late night partying are rarely out after 11:00 pm.
At Barmare, one of two places hit by suicide bombers on July 22 last year, Moustapha Sali survived the attack but lost his right eye and his left hand is partially paralysed.
The day of the explosion the father of seven was sitting under a tree where traces of the blast can still be seen.
"I'm afraid of another attack. It's not easy to forget what happened," says the former carpenter, who spent four months in hospital.
"The attack completely changed my life. Before I did everything. Now I don't do anything."
© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
Bamako, Mali | AFP | Thursday 9/22/2016 - 04:41 GMT
The UN has voiced concerns over Mali's shaky peace deal following deadly clashes between groups that have signed up to the agreement.
The clashes last week -- between pro-government group GATIA (the Imghad and Allies Tuareg Self-Defence Group) and ex-rebels from the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) -- left around a dozen fighters dead near the flashpoint northeastern town of Kidal.
"These clashes, as well as constituting repeated violations of ceasefire accords, threaten the progress achieved up until now in the implementation of the peace agreement," the UN's mission in Mali, known by the acronym MINUSMA, said in a statement on Wednesday.
The mission expressed "serious concern over the deterioration of the security situation and over reported allegations of human rights violations" and complained the unrest was hampering the delivery of humanitarian aid.
The UN called on parties involved in the peace deal to "take immediate measures to guarantee the protection of civilians and refrain from all action that could unleash a return to hostilities".
The Algeria-led international mediation team, which includes the UN, EU, African Union and the regional bloc ECOWAS, also said it was "deeply concerned" by the clashes and threatened sanctions targeting those responsible.
It "believes that this situation cannot continue longer without compromising the essence of this agreement" concluded in May-June 2015, according to a statement issued after a meeting of the committee monitoring the peace deal.
The mediation group threatened "sanctions by the international community" against those found responsible "individually or collectively" for the persistent deadlock.
It urged all parties to "fully respect their commitments and their responsibilities and demands, in particular, the government take all necessary measures for a speedy implementation of the agreement".
GATIA said this week that it had pushed the CMA out of two key villages in the region -- Inekabawatane, and In Khalil, a strategic frontier settlement that sees the transit of all imports from Algeria to northern Mali.
Northern Mali fell into the hands of jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda in early 2012.
Ongoing international military intervention since January 2013 has driven Islamist fighters away from the major urban centres they had briefly controlled, but large tracts of Mali are still not controlled by domestic or foreign troops.
Analysts say tribal rivalries have led to a deterioration of the security situation in the north.
© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
Since the beginning of 2016, the humanitarian crisis in South Sudan has deepened and spread. New clashes in multiple locations across the country have left even greater numbers of people uprooted. Civilians continue to be killed and subjected to horrendous violations, including sexual violence. Hunger and malnutrition have reached historic levels and taken hold in previously stable areas.
The operating environment is increasingly dangerous and difficult, including due to violence against aid workers, bureaucratic impediments, looting, and interference in humanitarian operations. The response is also severely underfunded. Just 54 per cent (US$691.8m) has been received out of $1.3 billion required under the 2016 South Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) to respond to the most life-threatening needs of 5.1 million people across the country.
Despite the challenges, humanitarian partners delivered lifesaving assistance and protection to more than 3.2 million people across the country from January to July 2016, including in some of the most remote locations.
SIX TUÉS DANS DES COMBATS ENTRE MILICES
Selon la force de maintien de la paix des Nations Unies (MINUSCA), des combats entre groupes armés dans les villes de KagaBandoro et Ndomete au nord ont fait six morts le 16 septembre. Dénonçant la violence et mettant en garde contre les tentatives visant à provoquer une instabilité dans le pays, la MINUSCA a également renforcé sa présence dans les deux zones touchées et est intervenue entre les parties au conflit pour protéger les civils.
CAMPAGNE DE VACCINATION CONTRE LA POLIO EN COURS
Le deuxième des cinq volets de vaccination contre la poliomyélite a commencé le 17 septembre. La campagne nationale de vaccination menée par le Ministère de la Santé avec l'appui de l'UNICEF et de l'OMS vise 3,3 millions d’enfants de moins de 5 ans et sera achevé en novembre. Le risque d'une épidémie demeure élevé au Tchad, alors que trois cas de poliomyélite ont été récemment découverts dans l‘État de Borno au Nigeria voisin.
ALLOCATION DE 10 MILLIONS DE DOLLARS US DU CERF
Le 14 septembre, le Fonds central d'intervention d'urgence (CERF) a alloué 10 millions de dollars US pour répondre aux besoins de 210 000 réfugiés et retournés de la RCA et leurs communautés d'accueil dans quatre régions du sud. Les fonds serviront à soutenir sept projets visant à fournir une assistance multisectorielle d'urgence: renforcer la sécurité alimentaire, les services de nutrition, l'accès aux soins de santé, l'entretien et l'amélioration des infrastructures de l'eau et de l'assainissement, la réhabilitation des abris détruits et l'accès à l'éducation.
DIX-SEPT TUÉS DANS DES MANIFESTATIONS VIOLENTES
De violentes manifestations antigouvernementales ont éclaté le 19 septembre dans la capitale Kinshasa et dans d’autres villes du pays, entraînant la mort de 17 personnes, dont trois policiers, d’après le ministre de l’Intérieur. Les manifestants protestaient contre l'intention perçue du Président Joseph Kabila de prolonger son mandat. Les manifestations ont continué dans la capitale pour une deuxième journée. Le Secrétaire général Ban Ki-moon a condamné la violence et a appelé à la retenue. Les pourparlers pour résoudre la crise sont en cours, bien que les principaux partis d'opposition les ont boycotté.
L’ÉPIDÉMIE DE FIÈVRE JAUNE SOUS CONTRÔLE
L'épidémie de fièvre jaune qui a débuté en Angola en décembre 2015 et s’est étendue à la République démocratique du Congo est maintenant sous contrôle. Selon l'OMS, il n'y a plus de risque d'une épidémie majeure. Depuis janvier, 2 707 cas ont été signalés dans l'ensemble des 26 provinces de la RDC, avec au moins 76 cas confirmés et 16 décès. Rien qu’à Kinshasa, 7,7 millions de personnes ont été vaccinées lors d’une récente campagne.
PLUS D’ASSISTANCE REQUISE DANS LA CRISE DU BASSIN DU LAC TCHAD
Le 15 septembre, le Coordonnateur humanitaire régional pour le Sahel, Toby Lanzer, a appelé à un soutien international accru pour les millions de personnes dévastées par les conflits, les déplacements et la perte de moyens de subsistance à travers le bassin du lac Tchad. L'appel a été lancé à la fin d'une visite de trois jours dans la région de Diffa, au sud-est du Niger. L'insuffisance du financement et l'insécurité persistante sont quelques-uns des principaux obstacles empêchant d’atteindre ceux qui en ont le plus besoin, a noté Lanzer. Jusqu'à présent, ce mois-ci, au moins sept attaques ont été signalées à Diffa, y compris un raid sur trois villages quelques heures après la visite du Coordonnateur humanitaire régional.
Yaoundé, Cameroun | AFP | jeudi 22/09/2016 - 10:06 GMT |
Trois civils ont été tués mercredi soir dans un attentat-suicide perpétré dans une localité de l'Extrême-Nord du Cameroun, cible d'attaques récurrentes attribuées aux islamistes nigérians de Boko Haram, a appris l'AFP de sources concordantes.
L'attentat s'est produit vers 20H00 (19H00 GMT) dans la localité de Djakana, faisant "quatre morts (le kamikaze compris) et des blessés, dont un dans un état critique", selon une source proche des autorités régionales. Ce bilan a été confirmé à l'AFP par une source sécuritaire.
Le kamikaze visait la ville de Mora, située à quelques kilomètres de Djakana, où il projetait de se faire exploser jeudi, jour de marché, a rapporté la source proche des autorités.
Alors qu'il transitait dans la nuit par Djakana, "il a été repéré par un membre du comité de vigilance de Djakana qui a (alors) tenté de le neutraliser", provoquant l'explosion, a-t-elle précisé. De même source, le membre du comité de vigilance a succombé à ses blessures lors de son transfert à l'hôpital.
Djakana se trouve à environ cinq kilomètres de la frontière nigériane. Cette localité a été à plusieurs reprises le théâtre d'attaques portant la marque de Boko Haram qui a fait allégeance à organisation de l'Etat islamique (EI).
Le 30 juin, onze personnes y avaient été tuées dans un attentat-suicide.
Plusieurs autres zones de l'Extrême-Nord du Cameroun frontalier du Nigeria sont régulièrement la cible d'attaques similaires.
C'est notamment le cas de Mora où trois autre civils ont péri le 21 août dans un attentat-suicide. Depuis, les populations vivent dans la crainte de nouvelles attaques, même si la fréquence des attentats a baissé depuis quelques mois.
Les pays riverains du lac Tchad (Nigeria, Tchad, Niger, Cameroun) auxquels s'est joint le Bénin, ont formé une force régionale contre ces jihadistes nigérians.
Les armées de la région ont infligé de sérieux revers à Boko Haram, contraint d'abandonner certains de ses bastions nigérians.
Mais le groupe a continué de multiplier les attentats-suicide meurtriers et s'est retranché dans des zones difficiles d'accès, comme les îles du lac Tchad, ou la forêt de Sambisa, à la frontière camerouno-nigériane.
L'insurrection de Boko Haram a fait plus de 20.000 morts et contraint plus de 2,6 millions d'habitants à fuir leur foyer. Née en 2009 dans le nord-est du Nigeria, elle s'est étendue au Niger, au Tchad et au Cameroun.
© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
Yaoundé, Cameroon | AFP | Thursday 9/22/2016 - 11:26 GMT
Three civilians were killed in Cameroon's Far North when a vigilante tried to stop a suicide bomber whose explosive device detonated, regional and security sources said on Thursday.
The incident took place on Wednesday evening in Djakana, a village near the border with northeastern Nigeria, stronghold of the Islamist group which last year pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group.
A source close to the regional authorities told AFP that, including the bomber, there were "four dead and a number of wounded, one of whom was in critical condition."
The toll was confirmed by a security official.
The source said the bomber had been planning to detonate his explosives in the nearby town of Mora on Thursday, which is market day, but his plans were thwarted in Djakana where he was planning to spend the night.
"He was spotted by a member of Djakana's vigilance committee who tried to neutralise him" which caused the explosion, she said, indicating that the man who tried to stop him was among the dead.
Djakana, which lies just a few kilometres (miles) from the Nigerian border, has been hit by a number of attacks, including one on June 30 in which 11 people were killed.
Another three civilians were killed and 20 others wounded in another suicide bombing in Mora on August 21.
Mora is home to the headquarters of a multi-national force fighting Boko Haram, which groups troops from Cameroon, Nigeria, Chad and Niger.
Boko Haram's seven-year insurgency has killed at least 20,000 people in Nigeria and border areas of neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon.
It has also left more than 2.8 million homeless, fleeing attacks by militants who have ransacked villages across the poverty-stricken region.
© 1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
Based on 44th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 44)
The Forty Fourth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 44) was convened from 29 to 30 August 2016 at the Speke Resort Conference Centre Munyonyo, Kampala, Uganda by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with WMO, UNDP, USAID, DFID and other partners to formulate a consensus regional climate outlook for the October to December 2016 rainfall season over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. The GHA region comprises Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. The forum was attended by over 200 participants from IGAD member states (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda) and scientists from regional climate centres.
During modelling and consensus building, technical guidance and valuable inputs were drawn from a wide range of sources including the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Producing Centres (WMO-GPCs), Met Office, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), US Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the GHA. Additional inputs were also obtained from UNESCO, Western Indian Ocean Marine Sciences Association (WIOMSA) as well as expert interpretation and opinion by regional and international climate scientists.
The implications of prevailing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomalies over the Tropical oceans and predicted negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD), and weak to moderate La Niña conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, regional circulation systems, topography and large inland water bodies that influence rainfall during the season were considered. The produced regional forecast product was further assessed using dynamical models product and expert interpretation to arrive at regional consensus climate outlook for October to December 2016 rainfall season. The potential benefits and negative implications of the consensus climate outlook were discussed, and mitigation strategies for the respective IGAD member countries and key sectors were developed.
Consensus Outlook for South Sudan (October to December 2016 rainfall season)
The October to December 2016 consensus climate outlooks for South Sudan are as below:
• Generally, October to December rainfall performance is predicted to be above average over most parts of South-Eastern and Northern parts of South Sudan;
• In particular, areas in the Southern, Eastern and Northern parts of South Sudan have high likelihood of above normal rainfall during the October to December 2016 rainfall season (Figure 1 Zone III);
• In comparison with the long-term average, most parts of Yambio, Nzara, Ezo, Tambura, Raga and Wau have high likelihood of receiving below normal rainfall during the October to December 2016 rainfall season (Figure 1 Zone V);
• There is increased likelihood of warmer than average mean temperatures over most parts of South Sudan (Figure 2 Zone II) except for the Northern and North-Eastern parts of Upper Nile State where mean temperatures are forecast to be average to warmer than average for the period of October to December 2016 rainfall season (Figure 2 Zone I).
Note: Although the outlook is relevant for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas, there is possibility for local and month-to-month variations to occur as the October to December season progresses. It is likely that dry spells might occur in areas with an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall and flash floods might occur in areas with increased likelihood of below normal rainfall. Updates will be provided by the South Sudan Meteorological Department.
Oxfam GB’s Global Performance Framework is part of the organisation’s effort to better understand and communicate its effectiveness, as well as enhance learning across the organisation. Under this Framework, a small number of completed or mature projects are selected at random each year for an evaluation of their impact, known as an ‘Effectiveness Review’. One key focus is on the extent to which they have promoted change in relation to relevant Oxfam GB global outcome indicators.
During the 2014/15 financial year, one of the projects that was the randomly selected for an Effectiveness Review was the project ‘Reinforcing Resilience Capacity in Bahr el Gazal’, which was implemented by Oxfam GB in the Bahr el Gazal Region in northern Chad between April 2011 and March 2015. The Effectiveness Review was expanded to include the project ‘Improving the Food Security Information System in Guéra Region’ (usually known by its French acronym as PASISAT), carried out by Intermón Oxfam and partner organisations Mostagbal and Nagdora between February 2011 and March 2014. The Effectiveness Review, which was carried out in January and February 2015, was aimed at evaluating the success of the community-level activities of these two projects in enabling households to strengthen their livelihoods, minimise risk from shocks and adapt to emerging trends and uncertainty. The Effectiveness Review was carried out in the communities in each region that had received the greatest concentration of activities under each of the projects.
The main activities carried out by the project in Bahr el Gazal included the distribution of seeds and tools, training on agricultural techniques, training of community animal-health workers, restocking of sheep and goats, vaccination of livestock, and training on market gardening. The main objective of the project PASISAT in Guéra was to strengthen the region’s Food Security Information System by establishing processes under which data on meteorological conditions and crop production are collected regularly by officials within each canton, and submitted to a central coordinating office. The participants interviewed also benefited directly from support in market gardening; training on seed replication techniques, soil conservation and restoration work; and promotion of improved nutritional practices.
The ongoing conflict with Boko Haram in West Africa has pushed the number of people facing the threat of severe hunger to more than 6 million according to the latest assessments, say 15 humanitarian organizations. The warning comes as governments and donors meet to talk about the humanitarian crisis in the Lake Chad Basin region at the UN General Assembly in New York on the 23 September.
The revised UN appeal is calling for US$559 million until the end of the year to meet the emergency needs caused by the crisis. Organizations say that without more money they are unable to reach the most vulnerable people even in areas that can be accessed.
Over 65,000 people are already living in famine in pockets of northeast Nigeria, and over one million people are one step away from famine. In the countries of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon there are 6.3 million people severely food insecure. Of these 4.4 million people are in Nigeria.
At the UN General Assembly world leaders will also discuss the plight of refugees and migrants, but those who have fled their homes but remain inside their countries will be missed from the discussions. With 2.6 million people on the move, the Lake Chad Basin is Africa's fastest growing displacement crisis and should be high on their agenda.
Yannick Pouchalan, Action Against Hunger’s Country Director for Nigeria: “What we are seeing is families teetering on the edge of famine. If organizations can’t reach communities in areas trapped by the conflict, we will be looking at a far greater disaster than we are currently facing. Many of those arriving in camps are already severely malnourished. We see families who have not eaten for days, many are begging for food. If the situation continues to deteriorate many more people may die.”
In some areas of Borno state in Nigeria, the rate of acute malnutrition in children under five is over 50 percent. This is similar to what was seen during the 2011 crisis in Somalia when the scale and severity of hunger led to a declaration of famine.
The conflict, and military operations to counter it, has meant that farmland, rivers and lakes that people rely on for growing food and fishing are off limits as part of military operations in Nigeria, Niger and Chad. Markets have been closed, and people’s means of transport, such as motorbikes, have been banned, cutting people off from their ways of making a living.
Lisa Bay, Oxfam’s Lake Chad Basin’s Operational Lead, said: “Civilians have paid a high price for policies of cutting off Boko Haram’s food and supplies. People should be able to fish, farm and sell their goods at markets. We have seen hugely generous communities welcome people who have fled their homes – but now they have nothing to give. They too are hungry and need access to aid.”
15 organizations in Nigeria are looking for over US$143 million until the end of the year to provide life saving support such as food, water, shelter and safety, but are struggling to secure the funding and scale up their activities.
Sarah Ndikumana, IRC’s Nigeria Country Director: “We have received little over US$53 million, but there is a funding gap of nearly US$90 million. Without money we simply can’t reach the people who need it the most with aid. The situation is critical with many lives hanging in the balance. We urge donors to dig deep to stop this crisis turning into a huge catastrophe. We cannot stand-by and watch thousands of people suffer and die when we can do something about it.”
Jennifer Poidatz, Vice President of Catholic Relief Services’ Humanitarian Response Department, said: "We need to learn from other protracted crises in the world, where short-term solutions simply don't allow people who have fled from their homes to go back to their lives. Only robust funding over multiple years, of both international organizations and local and national organizations on the ground, will ensure that we can adequately respond. We also need political leadership and action to address the root causes of the violence.”
As a result of the conflict, there have been alarming levels of sexual violence, human rights abuses and forced recruitment, even of young children. The security situation remains fragile and violence continues, making it difficult for the agencies to get assistance to all the people who need it.
Notes to editors
According to the Integrated Food Security Classification Phase (IPC) 65,069 people in pockets of North East Nigeria are in IPC Level 5 and already experiencing famine. Of these, the vast majority (58,506) are in Borno state and the rest are in Yobe state. Another 1 million are in IPC level 4, or one step away from famine.
Figures for the UN Response Requirements and shortfall are from Lake Chad Basin, Revised Requirement and Response Priorities September – December 2016.
Figures on the funding gap are from the international organisations in Nigeria. The organisations are as follows:
Action Against Hunger
Cooperazione International (COOPI)
Catholic Relief Services (CRS)
Danish Refugee Council
International Medical Corps
International Rescue Committee
Norweigan Refugee Council (NRC)
Premiere Urgence International
Save The Children Contact information
Lake Chad Basin media lead - Christina Corbett | +234 (0) 802 896 8039 | firstname.lastname@example.org
For the refugee summits in New York - Attila Kulcsar | email@example.com | +1 (917) 257 6518 | Skype: LondonW1
For other UNGA events, including tax havens, Lake Chad and Yemen - Vanessa Parra | firstname.lastname@example.org | +1 (202) 476-0093